生成带突发变化的随机路径,能高效捕捉复杂跳跃过程的高阶统计特征。
Generative Path-Law Jump-Diffusion: Sequential MMD-Gradient Flows and Generalisation Bounds in Marcus-Signature RKHS
- 通过动态谱白化在签名流形上构建可收缩的生成流
- 在非平稳跳变场景下实现高精度路径合成,计算效率高
- 适合金融时序、异常检测等含结构突变的复杂系统建模
本文提出一种新型生成框架,用于合成具有前瞻性的、右连续左极限(càdlàg)的随机路径,这些路径与随时间演化的路径律代理保持顺序一致性,从而包含预期的结构突变、制度转换和非自治动力学。通过将路径合成问题转化为受限Skorokhod流形上的序列匹配问题,我们构建了 extit{ anticipatory Neural Jump-Diffusion}(ANJD)生成流,该机制有效反演了扩展时间域下的马尔库斯型签名。核心在于提出时间演化精度算子——预期方差归一化签名几何(AVNSG),在签名流形上进行动态谱白化,确保在剧烈制度转换和离散随机冲击下保持收缩性。理论分析表明,联合生成流是相对于移动目标代理的核最大均值差异(MMD)函数的无穷小最速下降方向。我们还在受限路径空间中建立了统计泛化界,并分析了白化签名泛函的Rademacher复杂度,刻画了模型在重尾创新下的表达能力。通过Nyström压缩得分匹配与前瞻混合欧拉-马尔库斯积分方案实现可扩展数值求解。结果表明,该方法以高计算效率捕捉复杂不连续路径律的非交换矩和高阶随机纹理。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This paper introduces a novel generative framework for synthesising forward-looking, càdlàg stochastic trajectories that are sequentially consistent with time-evolving path-law proxies, thereby incorporating anticipated structural breaks, regime shifts, and non-autonomous dynamics. By framing path synthesis as a sequential matching problem on restricted Skorokhod manifolds, we develop the \textit{Anticipatory Neural Jump-Diffusion} (ANJD) flow, a generative mechanism that effectively inverts the time-extended Marcus-sense signature. Central to this approach is the Anticipatory Variance-Normalised Signature Geometry (AVNSG), a time-evolving precision operator that performs dynamic spectral whitening on the signature manifold to ensure contractivity during volatile regime shifts and discrete aleatoric shocks. We provide a rigorous theoretical analysis demonstrating that the joint generative flow constitutes an infinitesimal steepest descent direction for the Maximum Mean Discrepancy functional relative to a moving target proxy. Furthermore, we establish statistical generalisation bounds within the restricted path-space and analyse the Rademacher complexity of the whitened signature functionals to characterise the expressive power of the model under heavy-tailed innovations. The framework is implemented via a scalable numerical scheme involving Nyström-compressed score-matching and an anticipatory hybrid Euler-Maruyama-Marcus integration scheme. Our results demonstrate that the proposed method captures the non-commutative moments and high-order stochastic texture of complex, discontinuous path-laws with high computational efficiency.
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