arXiv:2604.05254cs.AIcs.LG2026-04被引 2

用图神经网络+轻量Transformer预测物流延迟,提前发现风险

EAGLE: Edge-Aware Graph Learning for Proactive Delivery Delay Prediction in Smart Logistics Networks

  • 结合时空特征:用轻量Transformer处理时间序列,用边感知图网络建模节点关系
  • 准确率高:在真实数据集上达到F1 0.8762,AUC 0.9773,稳定性强
  • 适合物流风控:尤其适合需要稳定高精度预测的智能供应链系统

现代物流网络在每个仓库节点和运输路径上产生丰富的运营数据流——包括订单时间戳、路由记录和发货清单——但延迟预测仍以被动响应为主。现有方法通常将该问题视为表格分类任务(忽略网络拓扑),或时间序列异常检测任务(忽视供应链的空间依赖性)。为此,我们提出一种混合深度学习框架,用于主动供应链风险管理。该方法通过轻量级Transformer Patch编码器联合建模时序订单流动态,并通过边感知图注意力网络(E-GAT)捕捉枢纽间关系,采用多任务学习目标进行优化。在真实世界DataCo智能供应链数据集上的评估显示,该框架相比基线方法实现持续提升,取得F1分数0.8762和AUC-ROC 0.9773。在四个独立随机种子下,跨种子F1标准差仅为0.0089,比最佳消融变体降低3.8倍,表现出所有模型中最强的预测精度与训练稳定性平衡。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Modern logistics networks generate rich operational data streams at every warehouse node and transportation lane -- from order timestamps and routing records to shipping manifests -- yet predicting delivery delays remains predominantly reactive. Existing predictive approaches typically treat this problem either as a tabular classification task, ignoring network topology, or as a time-series anomaly detection task, overlooking the spatial dependencies of the supply chain graph. To bridge this gap, we propose a hybrid deep learning framework for proactive supply chain risk management. The proposed method jointly models temporal order-flow dynamics via a lightweight Transformer patch encoder and inter-hub relational dependencies through an Edge-Aware Graph Attention Network (E-GAT), optimized via a multi-task learning objective. Evaluated on the real-world DataCo Smart Supply Chain dataset, our framework achieves consistent improvements over baseline methods, yielding an F1-score of 0.8762 and an AUC-ROC of 0.9773. Across four independent random seeds, the framework exhibits a cross-seed F1 standard deviation of only 0.0089 -- a 3.8 times improvement over the best ablated variant -- achieving the strongest balance of predictive accuracy and training stability among all evaluated models.

物流预测图神经网络多任务学习

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