解决多变量时间序列预测中注意力计算过高的问题。
MICA: Multivariate Infini Compressive Attention for Time Series Forecasting
- 将序列高效注意力思想扩展到通道维度,实现线性复杂度跨通道建模。
- 在多个数据集上平均降低5.4%误差,最高达25.4%。
- 适合高维时间序列预测,尤其对计算资源敏感的场景。
多变量时间序列预测中,基于Transformer的方法面临核心可扩展性挑战:通过注意力建模跨通道依赖时,其二次序列复杂度与二次通道扩展叠加,导致全通道注意力在高维场景下不可行。本文提出多变量无限压缩注意力(MICA),一种架构设计,将通道独立的Transformer扩展为通道依赖型预测模型。MICA借鉴序列维度的高效注意力技术,将其应用于通道维度,向通道独立主干网络添加跨通道注意力机制,使计算复杂度随通道数和上下文长度呈线性增长。我们在多个预测基准上评估了带与不带MICA的通道独立Transformer架构。结果表明,相较于通道独立基线,MICA平均降低5.4%预测误差,个别数据集最高降低25.4%,凸显显式跨通道建模的重要性。此外,含MICA的模型在深度多变量Transformer与MLP基线中排名第一。同时,相比在时间和通道维度均计算注意力的基线模型,MICA在通道数和上下文长度增加时具有更优的可扩展性,证明压缩注意力是实现可扩展多变量预测的实用方案。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Multivariate forecasting with Transformers faces a core scalability challenge: modeling cross-channel dependencies via attention compounds attention's quadratic sequence complexity with quadratic channel scaling, making full cross-channel attention impractical for high-dimensional time series. We propose Multivariate Infini Compressive Attention (MICA), an architectural design to extend channel-independent Transformers to channel-dependent forecasting. By adapting efficient attention techniques from the sequence dimension to the channel dimension, MICA adds a cross-channel attention mechanism to channel-independent backbones that scales linearly with channel count and context length. We evaluate channel-independent Transformer architectures with and without MICA across multiple forecasting benchmarks. MICA reduces forecast error over its channel-independent counterparts by 5.4% on average and up to 25.4% on individual datasets, highlighting the importance of explicit cross-channel modeling. Moreover, models with MICA rank first among deep multivariate Transformer and MLP baselines. MICA models also scale more efficiently with respect to both channel count and context length than Transformer baselines that compute attention across both the temporal and channel dimensions, establishing compressive attention as a practical solution for scalable multivariate forecasting.
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