用物理先验建模轴箱振动，精准预测车轮多阶不平顺。

Quantitative estimation of wheel polygonal roughness from axle-box vibration signals is a challenging yet practically relevant problem for rail-vehicle condition monitoring. Existing studies have largely focused on detection, identification, or severity classification, while continuous regression of multi-order roughness spectra remains less explored, especially under real operational data and unseen-wheel conditions. To address this problem, this paper presents PD-SOVNet, a physics-guided gray-box framework that combines shared second-order vibration kernels, a $4\times4$ MIMO coupling module, an adaptive physical correction branch, and a Mamba-based temporal branch for estimating the 1st--40th-order wheel roughness spectrum from axle-box vibrations. The proposed design embeds modal-response priors into the model while retaining data-driven flexibility for sample-dependent correction and residual temporal dynamics. Experiments on three real-world datasets, including operational data and real fault data, show that the proposed method provides competitive prediction accuracy and relatively stable cross-wheel performance under the current data protocol, with its most noticeable advantage observed on the more challenging Dataset III. Noise injection experiments further indicate that the Mamba temporal branch helps mitigate performance degradation under perturbed inputs. These results suggest that structured physical priors can be beneficial for stabilizing roughness regression in practical rail-vehicle monitoring scenarios, although further validation under broader operating conditions and stricter comparison protocols is still needed.