arXiv:2604.06663cs.CYcs.AI2026-04被引 3

用用户分群让大模型社会模拟更真实,避免千人一面。

Restoring Heterogeneity in LLM-based Social Simulation: An Audience Segmentation Approach

  • 通过分群策略恢复大模型模拟中的群体差异
  • 适度分群提升效果,过度细分反而降低准确性
  • 数据驱动分群最能还原群体结构关系

大语言模型在模拟社会态度与行为方面应用日益广泛,但现有方法常将多样性简化为单一平均人格,掩盖了社会现实中的群体差异。本研究提出以观众分群作为系统性恢复异质性的方法。基于美国气候态度调查数据,我们在Llama 3.1-70B和Mixtral 8x22B两个开源大模型上,对比六种分群配置,涵盖标识粒度、简洁性及选择逻辑(理论驱动、数据驱动、工具导向)。采用分布、结构、预测三维度评估框架进行验证。结果显示:提高标识粒度并不总带来改善——适度丰富可提升性能,但进一步扩展不具可靠性,甚至损害结构与预测保真度。在简洁性比较中,紧凑配置在结构与预测保真度上常优于复杂方案,而分布保真度则依赖指标。选择逻辑影响显著:工具导向最利于保留分布形态,数据驱动最擅长还原组间结构与标识-结果关联。整体而言,无单一配置在所有维度领先,某一维度的增益可能伴随另一维度的损失。研究证明观众分群是实现有效大模型社会模拟的核心方法,并强调需采用异质性感知评估与方差保持建模策略。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used to simulate social attitudes and behaviors, offering scalable "silicon samples" that can approximate human data. However, current simulation practice often collapses diversity into an "average persona," masking subgroup variation that is central to social reality. This study introduces audience segmentation as a systematic approach for restoring heterogeneity in LLM-based social simulation. Using U.S. climate-opinion survey data, we compare six segmentation configurations across two open-weight LLMs (Llama 3.1-70B and Mixtral 8x22B), varying segmentation identifier granularity, parsimony, and selection logic (theory-driven, data-driven, and instrument-based). We evaluate simulation performance with a three-dimensional evaluation framework covering distributional, structural, and predictive fidelity. Results show that increasing identifier granularity does not produce consistent improvement: moderate enrichment can improve performance, but further expansion does not reliably help and can worsen structural and predictive fidelity. Across parsimony comparisons, compact configurations often match or outperform more comprehensive alternatives, especially in structural and predictive fidelity, while distributional fidelity remains metric dependent. Identifier selection logic determines which fidelity dimension benefits most: instrument-based selection best preserves distributional shape, whereas data-driven selection best recovers between-group structure and identifier-outcome associations. Overall, no single configuration dominates all dimensions, and performance gains in one dimension can coincide with losses in another. These findings position audience segmentation as a core methodological approach for valid LLM-based social simulation and highlight the need for heterogeneity-aware evaluation and variance-preserving modeling strategies.

社会模拟大模型分群策略异质性

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。