arXiv:2604.07493cs.CRcs.LG2026-04

用差分隐私保护敏感接触网络,仍能准确模拟疾病传播。

Differentially Private Modeling of Disease Transmission within Human Contact Networks

  • 用节点级差分隐私计算网络统计量,保护个人贡献
  • 基于统计模型生成合成网络,噪声远小于采样误差
  • 适合隐私敏感的流行病学数据共享与研究

传染病研究常依赖接触网络模型来刻画疾病传播的复杂互动。然而,接触网络可能包含性关系、药物使用等敏感信息。在保护个体隐私的同时保持数据科学价值至关重要。本文提出一种基于差分隐私(DP)与随机块模型(SBMs)、指数随机图模型(ERGMs)的隐私保护疾病传播模拟流程:首先以节点级差分隐私计算网络摘要统计量;其次利用这些统计量拟合统计模型,生成反映原网络结构的合成网络;最后在合成网络上运行基于代理的疾病传播模型进行模拟。实验基于ARTNet研究中的自我中心性网络数据,采用简单的易感-感染-易感(SIS)模型,在多种配置下评估。对比有无差分隐私约束下的数值结果(如发病率、患病率)及定性结论(如干预效果大小),结果显示,为隐私添加的噪声相对于采样误差和模型误设等其他误差源较小。这表明,敏感数据管理者可在保护隐私的前提下提供有价值的流行病学洞察。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Epidemiologic studies of infectious diseases often rely on models of contact networks to capture the complex interactions that govern disease spread, and ongoing projects aim to vastly increase the scale at which such data can be collected. However, contact networks may include sensitive information, such as sexual relationships or drug use behavior. Protecting individual privacy while maintaining the scientific usefulness of the data is crucial. We propose a privacy-preserving pipeline for disease spread simulation studies based on a sensitive network that integrates differential privacy (DP) with statistical network models such as stochastic block models (SBMs) and exponential random graph models (ERGMs). Our pipeline comprises three steps: (1) compute network summary statistics using \emph{node-level} DP (which corresponds to protecting individuals' contributions); (2) fit a statistical model, like an ERGM, using these summaries, which allows generating synthetic networks reflecting the structure of the original network; and (3) simulate disease spread on the synthetic networks using an agent-based model. We evaluate the effectiveness of our approach using a simple Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) disease model under multiple configurations. We compare both numerical results, such as simulated disease incidence and prevalence, as well as qualitative conclusions such as intervention effect size, on networks generated with and without differential privacy constraints. Our experiments are based on egocentric sexual network data from the ARTNet study (a survey about HIV-related behaviors). Our results show that the noise added for privacy is small relative to other sources of error (sampling and model misspecification). This suggests that, in principle, curators of such sensitive data can provide valuable epidemiologic insights while protecting privacy.

差分隐私疾病传播网络建模

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