用双分支网络捕捉燃料与气象的交互,提升次日林火蔓延预测精度。
FireSenseNet: A Dual-Branch CNN with Cross-Attentive Feature Interaction for Next-Day Wildfire Spread Prediction

- 双分支CNN通过注意力门机制建模燃料与气象的空间交互。
- 在谷歌数据集上F1达0.4176,优于参数多3.8倍的SegFormer。
- 揭示风速在粗时间分辨率下为噪声,适合灾害应急与模型评估研究者。
准确预测次日林火蔓延对灾后响应和资源调配至关重要。现有深度学习方法通常将异构地理空间输入拼接成单一张量,忽略了静态燃料/地形属性与动态气象条件之间的根本物理差异。本文提出FireSenseNet,一种配备新型交叉注意力特征交互模块(CAFIM)的双分支卷积神经网络,通过多编码器尺度的可学习注意力门,显式建模燃料与天气模态间的空间变化交互。在Google次日林火蔓延基准数据集上,系统比较了七种架构(包括纯CNN、视觉变压器和混合设计),结果表明FireSenseNet取得F1值0.4176和AUC-PR 0.3435,超越所有对比模型,包括参数多3.8倍的SegFormer(F1=0.3502)。消融实验显示,CAFIM相比简单拼接带来7.1%的相对F1提升;通道级特征重要性分析表明,前一日火区掩码主导预测,而风速在数据集粗时间分辨率下表现为噪声。此外,引入蒙特卡洛丢弃实现像素级不确定性量化,并指出常见评估捷径使报告F1值虚高超44%。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate prediction of next-day wildfire spread is critical for disaster response and resource allocation. Existing deep learning approaches typically concatenate heterogeneous geospatial inputs into a single tensor, ignoring the fundamental physical distinction between static fuel/terrain properties and dynamic meteorological conditions. We propose FireSenseNet, a dual-branch convolutional neural network equipped with a novel Cross-Attentive Feature Interaction Module (CAFIM) that explicitly models the spatially varying interaction between fuel and weather modalities through learnable attention gates at multiple encoder scales. Through a systematic comparison of seven architectures -- spanning pure CNNs, Vision Transformers, and hybrid designs -- on the Google Next-Day Wildfire Spread benchmark, we demonstrate that FireSenseNet achieves an F1 of 0.4176 and AUC-PR of 0.3435, outperforming all alternatives including a SegFormer with 3.8* more parameters (F1 = 0.3502). Ablation studies confirm that CAFIM provides a 7.1% relative F1 gain over naive concatenation, and channel-wise feature importance analysis reveals that the previous-day fire mask dominates prediction while wind speed acts as noise at the dataset's coarse temporal resolution. We further incorporate Monte Carlo Dropout for pixel-level uncertainty quantification and present a critical analysis showing that common evaluation shortcuts inflate reported F1 scores by over 44%.
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