arXiv:2604.08639cs.LGcs.AI2026-04

简单模型比复杂方法更准更稳,适合高安全场景的不确定性评估。

VOLTA: The Surprising Ineffectiveness of Auxiliary Losses for Calibrated Deep Learning

  • 只用编码器+原型+交叉熵+后处理温度校准,轻量高效
  • 校准误差0.010,远低于基线0.044~0.102,准确率最高达0.864
  • 无需辅助损失,适合追求可靠性的实际部署场景

不确定性量化(UQ)对安全关键场景中的深度学习至关重要,但不同模态与分布偏移下尚无统一最佳方法。本文全面对比十种主流UQ基线(如MC Dropout、SWAG、温度校准、马氏距离等)与一种简化版VOLTA模型——仅保留深度编码器、可学习原型、交叉熵损失和事后温度校准。在CIFAR-10(分布内)、CIFAR-100、SVHN、均匀噪声(分布外)、CIFAR-10 C(损坏数据)及Tiny ImageNet特征(表格数据)上评估。VOLTA在准确率上达到0.864(CIFAR-10),预期校准误差低至0.010,显著优于基线(0.044–0.102),分布外检测AUROC达0.802。三组随机种子的统计测试表明,VOLTA性能匹配或超越多数基线,消融实验证明自适应温度与深度编码器至关重要。结果确立VOLTA为轻量、确定性且校准良好的替代方案。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for deploying deep learning models in safety critical applications, yet no consensus exists on which UQ method performs best across different data modalities and distribution shifts. This paper presents a comprehensive benchmark of ten widely used UQ baselines including MC Dropout, SWAG, ensemble methods, temperature scaling, energy based OOD, Mahalanobis, hyperbolic classifiers, ENN, Taylor Sensus, and split conformal prediction against a simplified yet highly effective variant of VOLTA that retains only a deep encoder, learnable prototypes, cross entropy loss, and post hoc temperature scaling. We evaluate all methods on CIFAR 10 (in distribution), CIFAR 100, SVHN, uniform noise (out of distribution), CIFAR 10 C (corruptions), and Tiny ImageNet features (tabular). VOLTA achieves competitive or superior accuracy (up to 0.864 on CIFAR 10), significantly lower expected calibration error (0.010 vs. 0.044 to 0.102 for baselines), and strong OOD detection (AUROC 0.802). Statistical testing over three random seeds shows that VOLTA matches or outperforms most baselines, with ablation studies confirming the importance of adaptive temperature and deep encoders. Our results establish VOLTA as a lightweight, deterministic, and well calibrated alternative to more complex UQ approaches.

不确定性量化模型校准轻量模型

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