研究发现，有私人停车位者电动车拥有率高出70%，但真正阻碍普及的是收入门槛。
The causal relation between off-street parking and electric vehicle adoption in Scotland
- 用因果模型分离收入与停车条件影响，避免传统分析偏差。
- 有车位者电动车拥有率从3.3%升至5.6%，绝对提升2.3个百分点。
- 适合政策制定者和城市规划者参考，尤其关注低收入人群电动车普及。
电动交通转型的关键在于提高整体采纳率并确保公平获取。本研究探讨苏格兰家庭是否因缺乏私有路边停车而面临‘充电鸿沟’，该现象是基础设施限制所致，还是社会经济差异的产物。我们采用概率因果框架分析全国代表性家庭数据集，能估计政策干预效果，并明确排除其他因素干扰。结果显示，私人停车具有结构性催化作用：拥有家充条件可使电动车拥有率从3.3%提升至5.6%（相对增长70%，绝对提升2.3个百分点）。但此效应主要加速已有购车能力的家庭，而非吸引新用户。相反，家庭收入是决定性的可负担性门槛：低收入与高收入群体间的对比显示，非参与率下降23.1个百分点，表明财务能力是进入电动车过渡流程的主要障碍。重要的是，常规观察模型会夸大停车设施的独立影响，实际源于选择偏差——高收入家庭更可能同时具备停车与购车能力。研究支持双轨策略：通过金融工具降低非参与者门槛，同时为高密度城区中‘潜在意愿’群体解决家用充电难题。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The transition to electric mobility hinges on maximising aggregate adoption while also facilitating equitable access. This study examines whether the 'charging divide' between households with and without off-street parking reflects a genuine infrastructure constraint or a by-product of socio-economic disparity. Moving beyond conventional predictive models, we apply a probabilistic causal framework to a nationally representative dataset of Scottish households, enabling estimation of policy interventions while explicitly neutralising the confounding effect of other causal factors. The results reveal a structural hierarchy in the EV adoption process. Private off-street parking functions as a conversion catalyst: enabling access to home-charging increases the probability of EV ownership from 3.3% to 5.6% (a 70% relative, 2.3 percentage point absolute increase). However, this effect primarily accelerates households already economically positioned to purchase an EV rather than recruiting new entrants. By contrast, household income operates as the fundamental affordability ceiling. A causal contrast between lower- and higher-income strata, shows a reduction in market non-participation by 23.1 percentage points, identifying financial capacity as the principal gatekeeper to entering the EV transition funnel. Crucially, the analysis demonstrates that standard observational models overstate the isolated effect of off-street parking infrastructure. The apparent effect emerges from selection bias: higher-income households are disproportionately likely to possess both private parking and the means to purchase EVs. These findings support a dual-track policy strategy: lowering the affordability ceiling for non-participants through financial instruments, while addressing EV home-charging access for the 'latent intent' cohort in high-density urban contexts.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品；中文卡片由大模型生成，请以原文为准。