arXiv:2604.09358cs.LGcs.NE2026-04

针对钢铁烧结过程的时序预测难题,提出自适应在线学习框架。

Drift-Aware Online Dynamic Learning for Nonstationary Multivariate Time Series: Application to Sintering Quality Prediction

  • 构建多尺度双分支卷积网络,分离局部波动与长期趋势。
  • 利用MMD无监督检测概念漂移,提前触发模型更新。
  • 基于漂移强度分层微调,缓解遗忘问题,适合工业质检场景。

非平稳多变量时间序列的精准预测在铁矿石烧结等复杂工业系统中仍具挑战性。实际中,显著的概念漂移与严重的标签验证延迟会迅速降低离线训练模型的性能。现有基于静态架构或被动更新策略的方法难以同时捕捉多尺度时空特征,并克服稳定性与可塑性之间的矛盾,且缺乏即时监督。为此,本文提出一种面向概念漂移的多尺度动态学习(DA-MSDL)框架,通过在线自适应机制维持非平稳数据流上的多输出预测鲁棒性。该框架采用多尺度双分支卷积网络作为主干,解耦局部波动与长期趋势,增强对复杂动态模式的表征能力。为突破标签延迟瓶颈,DA-MSDL引入最大均值差异(MMD)实现无监督漂移检测,通过量化特征分布的在线统计偏移,提前触发模型适应。此外,设计了基于漂移严重度的分层微调策略,结合动态记忆队列中的优先经验回放,实现快速分布对齐并有效缓解灾难性遗忘。在真实工业烧结数据与公开基准数据集上的长周期实验表明,DA-MSDL在严重概念漂移下持续优于代表性基线,展现出强跨域泛化能力和预测稳定性,为非平稳环境下的质量监控提供了一种有效的在线动态学习范式。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate prediction of nonstationary multivariate time series remains a critical challenge in complex industrial systems such as iron ore sintering. In practice, pronounced concept drift compounded by significant label verification latency rapidly degrades the performance of offline-trained models. Existing methods based on static architectures or passive update strategies struggle to simultaneously extract multi-scale spatiotemporal features and overcome the stability-plasticity dilemma without immediate supervision. To address these limitations, a Drift-Aware Multi-Scale Dynamic Learning (DA-MSDL) framework is proposed to maintain robust multi-output predictive performance via online adaptive mechanisms on nonstationary data streams. The framework employs a multi-scale bi-branch convolutional network as its backbone to disentangle local fluctuations from long-term trends, thereby enhancing representational capacity for complex dynamic patterns. To circumvent the label latency bottleneck, DA-MSDL leverages Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) for unsupervised drift detection. By quantifying online statistical deviations in feature distributions, DA-MSDL proactively triggers model adaptation prior to inference. Furthermore, a drift-severity-guided hierarchical fine-tuning strategy is developed. Supported by prioritized experience replay from a dynamic memory queue, this approach achieves rapid distribution alignment while effectively mitigating catastrophic forgetting. Long-horizon experiments on real-world industrial sintering data and a public benchmark dataset demonstrate that DA-MSDL consistently outperforms representative baselines under severe concept drift. Exhibiting strong cross-domain generalization and predictive stability, the proposed framework provides an effective online dynamic learning paradigm for quality monitoring in nonstationary environments.

时间序列在线学习概念漂移工业预测

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