arXiv:2604.09527cs.CVcs.AI2026-04被引 3

用稀疏轨迹逐步推演未来场景,实现快速多样预测。

Envisioning the Future, One Step at a Time

论文配图:Envisioning the Future, One Step at a Time
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 以稀疏点轨迹为单位,分步推演场景动态变化
  • 单图可快速生成数千条符合物理规律的未来路径
  • 适合需要长期多模态预测的自动驾驶等场景

准确预测复杂多样的场景演化,需建模不确定性、模拟长时交互链并高效探索多种可能未来。现有方法多依赖密集视频或潜在空间预测,过度消耗资源在外观细节上,而非场景中稀疏点的运动轨迹。这导致大规模未来假设探索成本高,且在长时程、多模态运动场景下性能受限。本文将开放集未来场景动态预测转化为对稀疏点轨迹的分步推理。提出的自回归扩散模型通过短时局部可预测的转移步骤推进轨迹,显式建模随时间增长的不确定性。该以动态为中心的表示使从单张图像快速展开数千条多样化未来成为可能,可选地由初始运动约束引导,同时保持物理合理性与长程一致性。我们还引入OWM基准,基于真实世界视频评估轨迹分布的准确性和变异性。所提方法在预测精度上达到或超过密集模拟器水平,采样速度提升数个数量级,使开放集未来预测既可扩展又实用。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurately anticipating how complex, diverse scenes will evolve requires models that represent uncertainty, simulate along extended interaction chains, and efficiently explore many plausible futures. Yet most existing approaches rely on dense video or latent-space prediction, expending substantial capacity on dense appearance rather than on the underlying sparse trajectories of points in the scene. This makes large-scale exploration of future hypotheses costly and limits performance when long-horizon, multi-modal motion is essential. We address this by formulating the prediction of open-set future scene dynamics as step-wise inference over sparse point trajectories. Our autoregressive diffusion model advances these trajectories through short, locally predictable transitions, explicitly modeling the growth of uncertainty over time. This dynamics-centric representation enables fast rollout of thousands of diverse futures from a single image, optionally guided by initial constraints on motion, while maintaining physical plausibility and long-range coherence. We further introduce OWM, a benchmark for open-set motion prediction based on diverse in-the-wild videos, to evaluate accuracy and variability of predicted trajectory distributions under real-world uncertainty. Our method matches or surpasses dense simulators in predictive accuracy while achieving orders-of-magnitude higher sampling speed, making open-set future prediction both scalable and practical. Project page: http://compvis.github.io/myriad.

未来预测扩散模型轨迹推演动态建模

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