用大模型安全挖掘股票因子,发现有效且多样化的投资信号。
Hubble: An LLM-Driven Agentic Framework for Safe, Diverse, and Reproducible Alpha Factor Discovery
- 用语言模型生成可解释的因子树,结合沙盒执行与反馈机制。
- 在500只美股中发现104个有效因子,顶尖因子集中在波动率和趋势类。
- 结果可复现,适合量化研究者做因子验证与后续分析。
自动化因子发现面临组合爆炸、信号噪声比低及代码生成不安全等问题。我们提出Hubble框架,融合大语言模型与领域特定操作符语言、抽象语法树执行沙盒、双通道检索增强生成模块及家族感知选择机制。不将大模型当作无约束代码生成器,而是限制其生成可解释的操作符树,通过确定性横截面流程评估每个候选因子,并将最优因子与结构化家族级诊断反馈至下一轮。系统引入正负样本RAG、公式相似性惩罚、标准化多指标评分、双重报告RankIC与Pearson IC,以及持久化诊断数据供事后分析。在约500只美国股票的组合中,三轮测试共评估104个有效候选因子,零运行崩溃,最优因子集主要来自范围、波动率和趋势家族,而非拥挤的成交量因子。随后固定前5名因子,在2025-06-01至2026-03-13的留出期验证中,两个范围因子和两个波动率因子仍保持正向表现,部分达HAC显著的Pearson IC与多空证据,而最弱的样本内趋势因子明显衰减。结果表明,安全的LLM引导搜索可升级为可复现的因子研究工作流,兼顾有效性、多样性、可解释性与家族泛化能力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Automated alpha discovery is difficult because the search space of formulaic factors is combinatorial, the signal-to-noise ratio in daily equity data is low, and unconstrained program generation is operationally unsafe. We present Hubble, an agentic factor mining framework that combines large language models (LLMs) with a domain-specific operator language, an abstract syntax tree (AST) execution sandbox, a dual-channel retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) module, and a family-aware selection mechanism. Instead of treating the LLM as an unconstrained code generator, Hubble restricts generation to interpretable operator trees, evaluates every candidate through a deterministic cross-sectional pipeline, and feeds back both top formulas and structured family-level diagnostics to subsequent rounds. The current system additionally introduces positive/negative RAG, formula-similarity penalties, standardized multi-metric scoring, dual reporting of RankIC and Pearson IC, and persistent diagnostics artifacts for post-hoc research analysis. On a U.S. equity universe of roughly 500 stocks, our main run evaluates 104 valid candidates across three rounds with zero runtime crashes and discovers a top set dominated by range, volatility, and trend families rather than crowded volume-only motifs. We then fix the resulting top-5 factors and validate them on a held-out period from 2025-06-01 to 2026-03-13. In this out-of-sample window, the two range factors and two volatility factors remain positive and several achieve HAC-significant Pearson IC and long-short evidence, whereas the weakest in-sample trend factor decays materially. These results suggest that safe LLM-guided search can be upgraded from a syntax-compliant generator into a reproducible alpha-research workflow that jointly optimizes validity, diversity, interpretability, and family-level generalization.
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