arXiv:2604.09932cs.LGcs.AI2026-04

融合物理模型与数据驱动,提升工业系统状态监测的准确性和可靠性。

A Hybrid Intelligent Framework for Uncertainty-Aware Condition Monitoring of Industrial Systems

论文配图:A Hybrid Intelligent Framework for Uncertainty-Aware Condition Monitoring of Industrial Systems
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用物理残差和时序特征增强传感器数据输入
  • 模型级集成使诊断准确率提升2.9%
  • 结合置信区间量化,实现更可靠的预测决策

将数据驱动学习与物理机理相结合的混合方法在提升工业状态监测可靠性方面展现出潜力。本文提出一种融合主传感器数据、滞后时序特征及基于正常代理模型的物理信息残差的混合监测框架。考察了两种集成策略:一是特征级融合,将残差与时序信息加入输入空间;二是模型级集成,对不同特征类型训练的机器学习分类器进行决策层组合。在连续搅拌釜反应器(CSTR)基准测试中,使用多种机器学习模型和集成配置评估。两种混合方法均优于单一来源基线,最佳模型级集成相较最优基线提升2.9%。为评估预测可靠性,采用置信区间方法量化覆盖度、预测集大小和拒答行为。结果表明,混合集成提升了不确定性管理能力,在相同覆盖水平下产生更小且校准更好的预测集。研究证明,轻量级物理残差、时序增强与集成学习可有效结合,显著提升非线性工业系统的准确率与决策可靠性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Hybrid approaches that combine data-driven learning with physics-based insight have shown promise for improving the reliability of industrial condition monitoring. This work develops a hybrid condition monitoring framework that integrates primary sensor measurements, lagged temporal features, and physics-informed residuals derived from nominal surrogate models. Two hybrid integration strategies are examined. The first is a feature-level fusion approach that augments the input space with residual and temporal information. The second is a model-level ensemble approach in which machine learning classifiers trained on different feature types are combined at the decision level. Both hybrid approaches of the condition monitoring framework are evaluated on a continuous stirred-tank reactor (CSTR) benchmark using several machine learning models and ensemble configurations. Both feature-level and model-level hybridization improve diagnostic accuracy relative to single-source baselines, with the best model-level ensemble achieving a 2.9\% improvement over the best baseline ensemble. To assess predictive reliability, conformal prediction is applied to quantify coverage, prediction-set size, and abstention behavior. The results show that hybrid integration enhances uncertainty management, producing smaller and well-calibrated prediction sets at matched coverage levels. These findings demonstrate that lightweight physics-informed residuals, temporal augmentation, and ensemble learning can be combined effectively to improve both accuracy and decision reliability in nonlinear industrial systems.

状态监测混合建模不确定性量化工业智能

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