arXiv:2604.10371cs.LG2026-04

提出新框架揭示气候极端事件的滞后因果路径,可解释中国区域热污染复合事件成因。

Structural Gating and Effect-aligned Lag-resolved Temporal Causal Discovery Framework with Application to Heat-Pollution Extremes

论文配图:Structural Gating and Effect-aligned Lag-resolved Temporal Causal Discovery Framework with Application to Heat-Pollution Extremes
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 融合结构门控与效应对齐机制,实现多变量时间序列的滞后因果发现。
  • 在东亚热-污染复合极端事件中识别出主导滞后期和因果重要性权重。
  • 适用于复杂气候环境系统,适合气候、环境领域研究者使用。

本研究提出结构门控与效应对齐的时序因果发现框架(SGED-TCD),用于复杂多变量时间序列中的滞后分辨因果推断。该框架结合显式结构门控、面向稳定性的学习、扰动-效应对齐及统一图提取,提升推断因果图的可解释性、鲁棒性和功能一致性。为评估其在典型真实场景下的有效性,将SGED-TCD应用于中国东、北部由遥相关驱动的复合热浪-空气污染极端事件。基于大规模气候指数、区域环流与边界层变量及复合极端指标,框架重建了具有明确主导滞后期和相对因果重要性的加权因果网络。结果揭示显著的区域与季节异质性:东部地区夏季极端事件主要通过环流、辐射与通风路径受低纬度海洋变率影响;而北方地区冬季极端事件则更受高纬度环流变率控制,伴随边界层抑制与持续停滞。这些结果表明,SGED-TCD可在挑战性气候-环境系统中恢复物理可解释、分层且滞后分辨的因果路径。该框架不局限于当前应用,为其他复杂领域的时序因果发现提供通用基础。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

This study proposes Structural Gating and Effect-aligned Discovery for Temporal Causal Discovery (SGED-TCD), a novel and general framework for lag-resolved causal discovery in complex multivariate time series. SGED-TCD combines explicit structural gating, stability-oriented learning, perturbation-effect alignment, and unified graph extraction to improve the interpretability, robustness, and functional consistency of inferred causal graphs. To evaluate its effectiveness in a representative real-world setting, we apply SGED-TCD to teleconnection-driven compound heatwave--air-pollution extremes in eastern and northern China. Using large-scale climate indices, regional circulation and boundary-layer variables, and compound extreme indicators, the framework reconstructs weighted causal networks with explicit dominant lags and relative causal importance. The inferred networks reveal clear regional and seasonal heterogeneity: warm-season extremes in Eastern China are mainly linked to low-latitude oceanic variability through circulation, radiation, and ventilation pathways, whereas cold-season extremes in Northern China are more strongly governed by high-latitude circulation variability associated with boundary-layer suppression and persistent stagnation. These results show that SGED-TCD can recover physically interpretable, hierarchical, and lag-resolved causal pathways in a challenging climate--environment system. More broadly, the proposed framework is not restricted to the present application and provides a general basis for temporal causal discovery in other complex domains.

因果发现气候模型时间序列

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