arXiv:2604.10475cs.AI2026-04被引 1

用角色化智能体模拟家庭决策,融合行为理论提升预测准确性。

PEMAND: Persona-Enriched Multi-Agent Negotiation for Household Decision-Making

论文配图:PEMAND: Persona-Enriched Multi-Agent Negotiation for Household Decision-Making
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 基于行为理论构建家庭角色画像,生成有逻辑的决策动机
  • 通过两阶段对话机制模拟家庭成员协商,准确率超越现有方法
  • 适合研究家庭行为、城市规划与政策模拟的学者与从业者

家庭层面决策建模在出行规划、居住迁移、灾害应对等实际应用中至关重要。现有研究多依赖传统机器学习模型,预测能力有限;而近期基于大模型的方法尚未融入行为理论或家庭内部互动动态,难以刻画真实家庭决策过程。为此,本文提出面向家庭决策的增强型多智能体协商框架(PEMAND),将静态人口统计特征转化为包含家庭态度、主观规范和感知行为控制的连贯叙事角色,依据提出的家庭意识计划行为链(HA-CoPB)框架实现个体化建模,并通过结构化的两阶段多智能体对话机制,结合新型角色对齐控制,模拟真实家庭协商过程。在出行行为与居住迁移两大领域的国家级及区域级数据集上评估,PEMAND持续优于当前最优基准。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Modeling household-level decisions is central to many real-world applications, including trip planning, residential mobility and migration, disaster management, etc. Existing studies primarily rely on classical machine learning models with limited predictive capacity, while recent LLM-based approaches have yet to incorporate behavioral theory or intra-household interaction dynamics, both of which are essential for modeling realistic household decisions. To address these limitations, we propose Persona-Enriched Multi-Agent Negotiation for household Decision-making (PEMAND), a novel LLM-based framework that integrates behavioral theory into individualized, household-aware persona modeling and simulates household-level decision-making through structured multi-agent negotiation. Specifically, PEMAND transforms static sociodemographic attributes into coherent narrative profiles that explicitly encode household-level attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral controls, following our proposed Household-Aware Chain-of-Planned-Behavior (HA-CoPB) framework. Building on these theory-grounded personas, PEMAND captures real-world household decision negotiation via a structured two-phase multi-agent conversation framework with a novel persona-alignment control mechanism. Evaluated on national and regional household decision datasets across two major domains, including travel behavior and residential mobility, PEMAND consistently outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks.

多智能体家庭决策行为建模大模型应用

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