提出闭环多智能体框架,提升中长期股票配置的稳定性与适应性。
EvoNash-MARL: A Closed-Loop Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning Framework for Medium-Horizon Equity Allocation
- 采用多智能体策略群体与博弈论聚合,实现自适应决策
- 在2014-2024年外样本测试中年化收益达19.6%,超SPY 11.7%
- 适用于真实交易约束下跨市场环境的稳健资产配置
中长期股票配置因预测结构弱、市场状态非平稳及交易约束下的信号退化而面临挑战。传统方法多依赖单一预测器或松散耦合流程,难以应对分布偏移。本文提出EvoNash-MARL,一种融合强化学习与基于种群的策略优化、执行感知选择的闭环框架,通过多智能体策略群体、博弈论聚合和约束感知验证,在120窗口滚动预测协议下表现最优。在2014至2024年外样本数据上,年化收益达19.6%,高于SPY的11.7%;延续评估至2026年仍保持稳定。尽管在白现实检验(WRC)与SPA-lite测试中未通过强全局统计显著性检验,结果仍表明该框架具备更强鲁棒性,而非确凿的择时优势。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Medium- to long-horizon equity allocation is challenging due to weak predictive structure, non-stationary market regimes, and the degradation of signals under realistic trading constraints. Conventional approaches often rely on single predictors or loosely coupled pipelines, which limit robustness under distributional shift. This paper proposes EvoNash-MARL, a closed-loop framework that integrates reinforcement learning with population-based policy optimization and execution-aware selection to improve robustness in medium- to long-horizon allocation. The framework combines multi-agent policy populations, game-theoretic aggregation, and constraint-aware validation within a unified walk-forward design. Under a 120-window walk-forward protocol, the final configuration achieves the highest robust score among internal baselines. On out-of-sample data from 2014 to 2024, it delivers a 19.6% annualized return, compared to 11.7% for SPY, and remains stable under extended evaluation through 2026. While the framework demonstrates consistent performance under realistic constraints and across market settings, strong global statistical significance is not established under White's Reality Check (WRC) and SPA-lite tests. The results therefore provide evidence of improved robustness rather than definitive proof of superior market timing performance.
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