用分子钟方法量化帝国对文字演化的影响，发现殖民统治显著改变文字演变节奏。
A molecular clock for writing systems reveals the quantitative impact of imperial power on cultural evolution
- 构建全球文字数据库，用四种方法识别出文字演化的分子钟模式。
- 每千年人均0.226次字符替换，帝国干预使文字偏离正常演化轨迹。
- 西班牙殖民导致50%接触文字灭绝，揭示权力对文化创新的压制作用。
文字是文化复制子，其全球尺度的定量演化研究尚属空白。本文构建全球文字数据库（GSD），涵盖300种书写与记号系统、50个二元结构特征及259条谱系分支，时间跨度达5400年。采用表型分类、支序分析、贝叶斯推断和神经网络聚类四类方法，发现文字演化存在可检测的分子钟现象。最优模型（Mk+Gamma严格时钟）显示每千年每字符替换率为0.226（95%置信区间：0.034-1.22；与松弛时钟相比ΔBIC=-4.1，与无速率变化模型相比ΔBIC=-1,364.7）。政治干预打破该时钟：偏离预期分化时间与干预强度显著相关（斯皮尔曼ρ=0.556，p<10⁻⁴）；逐字符速率分析表明，干预更倾向于重写深层结构特征而非仅加速变化（速率分布相关性ρ=0.320）。识别出30次主要文字更替事件并评估其破坏力。已有文字存在会抑制独立发明（费希尔精确优势比OR=0.054，p<10⁻⁶），殖民接触可预测文字灭绝（Cox风险比HR=5.25，p=0.0006）。西班牙帝国导致12个接触文字中6个灭绝（50%），日本帝国则造成9个中3个灭绝（33.3%）。特征编码通过两名独立人工标注者验证（科恩κ=0.877；人-大模型κ=0.929；弗莱斯κ=0.911）。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Writing systems are cultural replicators whose evolution has never been studied quantitatively at global scale. We compile the Global Script Database (GSD): 300 writing and notation systems, 50 binary structural characters, and 259 phylogenetic edges spanning 5,400 years. Applying four methods -- phenetics, cladistics, Bayesian inference, and neural network clustering -- we find that scripts exhibit a detectable molecular clock. The best-fitting model (Mk+Gamma strict clock) yields a substitution rate of q = 0.226 substitutions/character/millennium (95% CI: 0.034-1.22; Delta BIC = -4.1 versus relaxed clock; Delta BIC = -1,364.7 versus Mk without rate variation). Political interventions break this clock: deviation from expected divergence times correlates with intervention intensity (Spearman rho = 0.556, p < 10^{-4}), and per-character rate analysis reveals that intervention selectively rewrites deep structural features rather than merely accelerating change (rate profile correlation rho = 0.320). We identify 30 major script replacement events and rank their destructive impact. A ceiling effect suppresses independent invention wherever writing already exists (Fisher's exact OR = 0.054, p < 10^{-6}), and colonial contact predicts script extinction (Cox HR = 5.25, p = 0.0006). The Spanish Empire extinguished the most scripts (6 of 12 contacted, 50%), followed by the Empire of Japan (3 of 9, 33.3%). Feature coding was validated by inter-rater reliability testing with two independent human coders (Cohen's kappa = 0.877; human-LLM kappa = 0.929; Fleiss' kappa = 0.911).
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