arXiv:2604.11909cs.LGcs.AI2026-04

用物理约束提升光伏预测,彻底消除夜间虚假发电。

Thermodynamic Liquid Manifold Networks: Physics-Bounded Deep Learning for Solar Forecasting in Autonomous Off-Grid Microgrids

  • 将气象变量投影到黎曼流形,结合热力学门控机制
  • 夜间误差为零,高频率天气变化响应<30分钟
  • 仅6.3万参数,适合边缘部署的微电网控制

自主离网光伏系统稳定运行依赖符合大气热力学的太阳能预测算法。现有深度学习模型普遍存在云层变化时严重的时间相位滞后及不可能的夜间发电现象。为此,本文提出热力学液态流形网络,将22个气象与几何变量投影至柯普曼线性化的黎曼流形,系统映射复杂气候动态。架构集成谱校准单元与乘法型热力学α门,实时融合大气透明度与理论晴空边界模型,结构化强制遵守天体几何约束。该方法彻底消除虚假夜间发电,同时在快速天气变化中保持零相位同步。在严酷半干旱气候下五年的严格验证中,模型达到18.31 Wh/m²的均方根误差与0.988的皮尔逊相关系数。所有1826个测试日夜间误差均为零,高频光学瞬变响应时间低于30分钟。模型仅含63,458个可训练参数,具备边缘部署能力,确立了热力学一致的微电网控制器新标准。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The stable operation of autonomous off-grid photovoltaic systems requires solar forecasting algorithms that respect atmospheric thermodynamics. Contemporary deep learning models consistently exhibit critical anomalies, primarily severe temporal phase lags during cloud transients and physically impossible nocturnal power generation. To resolve this divergence between data-driven modeling and deterministic celestial mechanics, this research introduces the Thermodynamic Liquid Manifold Network. The methodology projects 22 meteorological and geometric variables into a Koopman-linearized Riemannian manifold to systematically map complex climatic dynamics. The architecture integrates a Spectral Calibration unit and a multiplicative Thermodynamic Alpha-Gate. This system synthesizes real-time atmospheric opacity with theoretical clear-sky boundary models, structurally enforcing strict celestial geometry compliance. This completely neutralizes phantom nocturnal generation while maintaining zero-lag synchronization during rapid weather shifts. Validated against a rigorous five-year testing horizon in a severe semi-arid climate, the framework achieves an RMSE of 18.31 Wh/m2 and a Pearson correlation of 0.988. The model strictly maintains a zero-magnitude nocturnal error across all 1826 testing days and exhibits a sub-30-minute phase response during high-frequency optical transients. Comprising exactly 63,458 trainable parameters, this ultra-lightweight design establishes a robust, thermodynamically consistent standard for edge-deployable microgrid controllers.

光伏预测物理约束边缘计算微电网

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