用生成模型反推城市植被布局,实现降温目标并保持多样性
Conflated Inverse Modeling to Generate Diverse and Temperature-Change Inducing Urban Vegetation Patterns

- 结合前向预测与扩散生成模型,逆向设计降温所需的植被分布
- 在数据稀缺时仍能生成多种合理且物理可实现的植被方案
- 适合城市规划和气候适应研究,尤其关注热岛缓解的场景
城市地区正因快速城市化和气候变化面临日益严重的热极端风险。传统方法依赖遥感卫星和数值模拟框架监测热异常,例如使用Landsat或Sentinel影像获取地表温度来刻画表面加热模式。这些方法多为前向模型,将辐射观测或边界条件转化为地表热状态估计。尽管前向模型能从植被与城市形态预测地表温度,但如何反推实现特定区域温降的植被空间配置仍是未解难题。该问题本质上是欠定的,即多种植被布局可能产生相似的总体温度响应。传统回归与确定性神经网络无法捕捉这种不确定性,常生成平均解,尤其在数据稀疏条件下表现不佳。本文提出一种融合逆向建模框架,结合预测性前向模型与基于扩散的生成式逆模型,生成符合特定温降目标的多样化、物理合理的图像级植被模式。该框架在控制热结果的同时,支持多样化的空间植被配置,即使这些组合未出现在训练数据中。整体上,本工作提出一种可控的逆向建模方法,用于城市气候适应,充分考虑问题固有的多样性。代码已开源。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Urban areas are increasingly vulnerable to thermal extremes driven by rapid urbanization and climate change. Traditionally, thermal extremes have been monitored using Earth-observing satellites and numerical modeling frameworks. For example, land surface temperature derived from Landsat or Sentinel imagery is commonly used to characterize surface heating patterns. These approaches operate as forward models, translating radiative observations or modeled boundary conditions into estimates of surface thermal states. While forward models can predict land surface temperature from vegetation and urban form, the inverse problem of determining spatial vegetation configurations that achieve a desired regional temperature shift remains largely unexplored. This task is inherently underdetermined, as multiple spatial vegetation patterns can yield similar aggregated temperature responses. Conventional regression and deterministic neural networks fail to capture this ambiguity and often produce averaged solutions, particularly under data-scarce conditions. We propose a conflated inverse modeling framework that combines a predictive forward model with a diffusion-based generative inverse model to produce diverse, physically plausible image-based vegetation patterns conditioned on specific temperature goals. Our framework maintains control over thermal outcomes while enabling diverse spatial vegetation configurations, even when such combinations are absent from training data. Altogether, this work introduces a controllable inverse modeling approach for urban climate adaptation that accounts for the inherent diversity of the problem. Code is available at the GitHub repository.
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