在马尔可夫依赖数据上,提出新方法实现投票集成的最优误差下界。
Minimax Optimality and Spectral Routing for Majority-Vote Ensembles under Markov Dependence
- 基于谱路由思想,按依赖图特征向量划分数据以缓解马尔可夫相关性影响。
- 理论证明:在固定维马尔可夫设置下,最小最大风险为 $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{\Tmix/n})$。
- 适用于时间序列、空间网格及深度强化学习等存在依赖结构的数据场景。
多数投票集成通过平均多个近似独立的基学习器实现方差降低。当训练数据呈现马尔可夫依赖(如时间序列预测、强化学习回放缓冲区、空间网格)时,这一经典性质会退化,而现有理论未能充分量化。本文在固定维度马尔可夫设置下,对离散分类问题给出了最小最大刻画,并提出一种自适应谱路由算法,在图正则子类上达到最优率 $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{\Tmix/n})$,无需已知 $\Tmix$。首先建立信息论下界:对于平稳、可逆、几何遍历链,任何可测估计器的超额分类风险均不低于 $Ω(\sqrt{\Tmix/n})$。其次,在生成下界的AR(1)子类上,不考虑依赖性的均匀袋装法的超额风险下界为 $Ω(\Tmix/\sqrt{n})$,存在 $\sqrt{\Tmix}$ 的算法差距。最后,提出的自适应谱路由方法,利用经验费德勒向量对训练数据分块,可在图正则子类上达到 $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{\Tmix/n})$ 的最小最大率,仅含低阶几何割项。合成马尔可夫链、二维空间网格、UCR 128个数据集和Atari DQN集成的实验验证了理论预测。附录中还讨论了深度强化学习目标方差、通过Nyström近似实现可扩展性以及非平稳性有界情形的后果。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Majority-vote ensembles achieve variance reduction by averaging over diverse, approximately independent base learners. When training data exhibits Markov dependence, as in time-series forecasting, reinforcement learning (RL) replay buffers, and spatial grids, this classical guarantee degrades in ways that existing theory does not fully quantify. We provide a minimax characterization of this phenomenon for discrete classification in a fixed-dimensional Markov setting, together with an adaptive algorithm that matches the rate on a graph-regular subclass. We first establish an information-theoretic lower bound for stationary, reversible, geometrically ergodic chains in fixed ambient dimension, showing that no measurable estimator can achieve excess classification risk better than $Ω(\sqrt{\Tmix/n})$. We then prove that, on the AR(1) witness subclass underlying the lower-bound construction, dependence-agnostic uniform bagging is provably suboptimal with excess risk bounded below by $Ω(\Tmix/\sqrt{n})$, exhibiting a $\sqrt{\Tmix}$ algorithmic gap. Finally, we propose \emph{adaptive spectral routing}, which partitions the training data via the empirical Fiedler eigenvector of a dependency graph and achieves the minimax rate $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{\Tmix/n})$ up to a lower-order geometric cut term on a graph-regular subclass, without knowledge of $\Tmix$. Experiments on synthetic Markov chains, 2D spatial grids, the 128-dataset UCR archive, and Atari DQN ensembles validate the theoretical predictions. Consequences for deep RL target variance, scalability via Nyström approximation, and bounded non-stationarity are developed as supporting material in the appendix.
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