arXiv:2604.13455cs.LGcs.AI2026-04

用物理知识指导的轻量模型,比复杂注意力模型更准预测光照强度。

Outperforming Self-Attention Mechanisms in Solar Irradiance Forecasting via Physics-Guided Neural Networks

  • 融合物理特征与CNN-BiLSTM,用15个工程特征引导预测。
  • 在苏丹数据上RMSE达19.53 W/m²,优于注意力模型的30.64 W/m²。
  • 适合需实时运行的可再生能源管理场景,强调物理约束价值。

准确的全球水平辐照度(GHI)预测对电网稳定至关重要,尤其在尘埃快速变化的干旱地区。尽管近期趋势倾向于计算成本高的Transformer架构,本文挑战了“复杂性优先”的范式。我们提出一种轻量级、基于物理信息的混合CNN-BiLSTM框架,强调领域知识而非网络深度。模型结合卷积神经网络(CNN)进行空间特征提取和双向长短期记忆网络(BiLSTM)捕捉时间依赖性。不同于传统数据驱动方法,该模型显式引入由15个工程特征组成的向量,包括晴空指数和太阳天顶角,而非仅依赖原始历史数据。通过贝叶斯优化严格调优超参数以确保全局最优。在苏丹的NASA POWER数据上的实验表明,该物理引导方法达到19.53 W/m²的均方根误差(RMSE),显著优于复杂注意力基线(RMSE 30.64 W/m²)。结果证实了“复杂性悖论”:在高噪声气象任务中,明确的物理约束比自注意力机制提供更高效、更准确的替代方案。研究主张向混合、物理感知的人工智能转变,用于实时可再生能源管理。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) forecasting is critical for grid stability, particularly in arid regions characterized by rapid aerosol fluctuations. While recent trends favor computationally expensive Transformer-based architectures, this paper challenges the prevailing "complexity-first" paradigm. We propose a lightweight, Physics-Informed Hybrid CNN-BiLSTM framework that prioritizes domain knowledge over architectural depth. The model integrates a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) for spatial feature extraction with a Bi-Directional LSTM for capturing temporal dependencies. Unlike standard data-driven approaches, our model is explicitly guided by a vector of 15 engineered features including Clear-Sky indices and Solar Zenith Angle - rather than relying solely on raw historical data. Hyperparameters are rigorously tuned using Bayesian Optimization to ensure global optimality. Experimental validation using NASA POWER data in Sudan demonstrates that our physics-guided approach achieves a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 19.53 W/m^2, significantly outperforming complex attention-based baselines (RMSE 30.64 W/m^2). These results confirm a "Complexity Paradox": in high-noise meteorological tasks, explicit physical constraints offer a more efficient and accurate alternative to self-attention mechanisms. The findings advocate for a shift towards hybrid, physics-aware AI for real-time renewable energy management.

光照预测物理引导轻量模型能源管理

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