arXiv:2604.13459cs.LGcs.AI2026-04

用混合模型预测发动机剩余寿命,兼顾准确与可解释性。

Asymmetric-Loss-Guided Hybrid CNN-BiLSTM-Attention Model for Industrial RUL Prediction with Interpretable Failure Heatmaps

  • 结合1D-CNN、BiLSTM和自定义注意力机制,捕捉多传感器时空特征。
  • 在NASA数据集上达到RMSE 17.52循环,S-Score 922.06,优于多数基线。
  • 生成退化热图,直观展示故障演化过程,适合工业维护决策。

持续运行压力下涡轮发动机的退化需要鲁棒的预测系统来准确估计关键部件的剩余使用寿命(RUL)。现有深度学习方法常无法同时捕捉多传感器空间相关性与长程时间依赖性,且标准对称损失函数对安全关键的寿命高估误差惩罚不足。本研究提出一种混合架构,融合双阶段一维卷积神经网络(1D-CNN)、双向长短期记忆网络(BiLSTM)和自定义的Bahdanau加性注意力机制。模型在NASA商用模块化航空推进系统仿真(C-MAPSS)FD001子数据集上训练与评估,采用零泄漏预处理流程、分段线性RUL标注上限为130周期,并使用NASA指定的非对称指数损失函数,该函数对高估残余寿命进行更强惩罚,以满足工业安全约束。在100台测试发动机上,模型取得17.52周期的均方根误差(RMSE)和922.06的NASA S-Score。此外,提取的注意力权重热图提供了每台发动机退化演进的可解释性洞察,支持维护决策。所提框架在性能上具有竞争力,为工业场景下的安全、可解释预测提供了一种原则性方法。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Turbofan engine degradation under sustained operational stress necessitates robust prognostic systems capable of accurately estimating the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of critical components. Existing deep learning approaches frequently fail to simultaneously capture multi-sensor spatial correlations and long-range temporal dependencies, while standard symmetric loss functions inadequately penalize the safety-critical error of over-estimating residual life. This study proposes a hybrid architecture integrating Twin-Stage One-Dimensional Convolutional Neural Networks (1D-CNN), a Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) network, and a custom Bahdanau Additive Attention mechanism. The model was trained and evaluated on the NASA Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation (C-MAPSS) FD001 sub-dataset employing a zero-leakage preprocessing pipeline, piecewise-linear RUL labeling capped at 130 cycles, and the NASA-specified asymmetric exponential loss function that disproportionately penalizes over-estimation to enforce industrial safety constraints. Experiments on 100 test engines achieved a Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 17.52 cycles and a NASA S-Score of 922.06. Furthermore, extracted attention weight heatmaps provide interpretable, per-engine insights into the temporal progression of degradation, supporting informed maintenance decision-making. The proposed framework demonstrates competitive performance against established baselines and offers a principled approach to safe, interpretable prognostics in industrial settings.

寿命预测工业智能可解释性注意力机制

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