经济危机的严重性源于生产网络的脆弱演化,微小冲击可引发巨大连锁反应。
Sandpile Economics: Theory, Identification, and Evidence
- 用输入产出图的曲率度量供应链替代弹性,揭示系统性风险来源。
- 曲率低于阈值时,危机规模呈幂律分布,尾指数α∈(1,2),放大效应无界。
- 实证发现全球生产网络长期处于负曲率状态,曲率优于传统指标预测韧性差异。
为何资本主义经济在遭遇微小冲击时仍会反复爆发严重危机?本文提出一种基于生产网络演化几何结构的结构性解释:随着专业化、集成化与竞争筛选的演进,部门间联结逐渐趋向几何脆弱的配置,最终越过临界点,导致小扰动引发巨大级联崩溃。本文提出“沙堆经济学”框架,将宏观不稳定性视为非均衡生产网络的涌现属性。核心状态变量为投入产出图的Forman-Ricci曲率,表征供应中断时局部替代可能性。当曲率低于内生阈值时,级联规模分布呈现幂律,尾指数α∈(1,2),意味着放大效应无界。其机制源于演化过程:专业化降低输入可替代性,推动经济逼近临界态;危机事件则引致内生网络重构与路径依赖。该动态本质非遍历,无法被代表性主体模型捕捉。利用全球投入产出数据,我们发现生产网络长期运行于负曲率区间,且曲率能稳健预测中期产出动态:曲率每提高一个标准差,三年累计增长更高,且显著优于传统网络指标解释跨国韧性差异。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Why do capitalist economies recurrently generate crises whose severity is disproportionate to the size of the triggering shock? This paper proposes a structural answer grounded in the evolutionary geometry of production networks. As economies evolve through specialization, integration, and competitive selection, their inter-sectoral linkages drift toward configurations of increasing geometric fragility, eventually crossing a threshold beyond which small disturbances generate disproportionately large cascades. We introduce Sandpile Economics, a formal framework that interprets macroeconomic instability as an emergent property of disequilibrium production networks. The key state variable is the Forman--Ricci curvature of the input--output graph, capturing local substitution possibilities when supply chains are disrupted. We show that when curvature falls below an endogenous threshold, the distribution of cascade sizes follows a power law with tail index $α\in (1,2)$, implying a regime of unbounded amplification. The underlying mechanism is evolutionary: specialization reduces input substitutability, pushing the economy toward criticality, while crisis episodes induce endogenous network reconfiguration and path dependence. These dynamics are inherently non-ergodic and cannot be captured by representative-agent frameworks. Empirically, using global input--output data, we document that production networks operate in persistently negative curvature regimes and that curvature robustly predicts medium-run output dynamics. A one-standard-deviation increase in curvature is associated with higher cumulative growth over three-year horizons, and curvature systematically outperforms standard network metrics in explaining cross-country differences in resilience.
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