用大模型预测电网动态轨迹,无需数据共享即可快速准确推演故障后系统变化。
Predicting Power-System Dynamic Trajectories with Foundation Models

- 基于40多GB微分方程轨迹预训练,学习可迁移的电力系统动态表征。
- 在多种运行场景下实现零样本预测,误差显著低于现有学习模型。
- 适合需要快速在线分析的电网调度与安全评估场景。
随着电力系统向高比例可再生能源和逆变器主导模式转型,时域动态分析变得愈发关键,支撑暂态稳定评估、动态安全分析、扰动筛选及故障后轨迹评估等关键任务。实际应用中面临系统参数未知且时变、数据共享存在隐私限制、需快速在线推理等挑战。现有基于学习的方法通常针对特定系统训练,跨运行状态和物理参数泛化能力差。本文提出LASS-ODE-Power,一种通用时域预测学习框架。该方法利用超过40 GB的DAE或常微分方程(ODE)轨迹进行大规模预训练,学习可迁移的表示。模型支持从短时测量前缀出发,在多种动态模式(包括机电型与逆变器驱动系统)下进行轨迹预测,可在无需数据共享的零样本设置中直接使用。同时,架构采用并行与线性化计算,实现高效推理。为进一步提升电力系统任务性能,设计了基于约1 GB异构动态数据的专用微调策略。大量实验表明,该模型在多样化的电力系统仿真场景中,始终以更优精度和高效推理超越现有学习模型。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
As power systems transition toward renewable-rich and inverter-dominated operations, accurate time-domain dynamic analysis becomes increasingly critical. Such analysis supports key operational tasks, including transient stability assessment, dynamic security analysis, contingency screening, and post-fault trajectory evaluation. In practice, these tasks may operate under several challenges, including unknown and time-varying system parameters, privacy constraints on data sharing, and the need for fast online inference. Existing learning-based approaches are typically trained for individual systems and therefore lack generalization across operating conditions and physical parameters. Hence, this paper proposes LArge Scale Small ODE (LASS)-ODE-Power, a learning framework for general-purpose time-domain prediction. The proposed approach leverages large-scale pretraining on more than 40 GB of DAE or ordinary differential-equation (ODE) trajectories to learn transferable representations. The resulting model supports trajectory prediction from short measurement prefixes across diverse dynamic regimes, including electromechanical and inverter-driven systems. Hence, the model can be directly used without data sharing in a zero-shot setting. In addition, the proposed architecture incorporates parallel and linearized computation to achieve fast inference. Moreover, to enhance task-specific performance in power systems, a specialized fine-tuning strategy is developed based on approximately 1 GB of heterogeneous power-system dynamic data. Extensive experiments over diverse power-system simulation scenarios demonstrate that LASS-ODE-Power consistently outperforms existing learning-based models in trajectory prediction accuracy with efficient inference.
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