arXiv:2604.15360cs.LGcs.SY2026-04

研究电池调度中不确定性下的最优规划周期,给出可复用的决策指导。

Mapping High-Performance Regions in Battery Scheduling across Data Uncertainty, Battery Design, and Planning Horizons

论文配图:Mapping High-Performance Regions in Battery Scheduling across Data Uncertainty, Battery Design, and Planning Horizons
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 构建参数化合成数据框架,系统分析电池特性与预测误差对收益的影响。
  • 发现预测越不确定,最优规划周期越短,长期信息价值下降明显。
  • 结果可复现真实市场趋势,适合快速评估不同场景下的调度策略。

本研究提出一种受控参数化框架,用于在多阶段模型预测控制下分析能源存储规划中的不确定性。通过参数化生成合成数据集,系统研究电池特性、信号结构、预测不确定性及规划周期对储能优化收益的联合影响,这些因素此前很少被共同考虑。研究基于两个目标:一是刻画各因素如何影响运营收益及其对规划周期选择的敏感性,包括偏离最优周期造成的经济损失,为合理周期范围及计算成本提供指导;二是实现电池属性、数据特征、预测不确定性与周期依赖性能之间关系的紧凑参数化,为未来最优规划周期建模奠定基础。结果表明,该框架在不同配置下捕捉到一致的结构性依赖关系,并为不确定性条件下的周期选择提供了有效指导。特别是,预测不确定性增加会系统性缩短最优规划周期,反映长期信息价值随预测可靠性下降而降低。与真实市场数据对比显示,该参数化能复现最优周期行为的主要定性趋势,表明其具有作为复杂仿真分析轻量级替代方案的潜力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

This study presents a controlled parametric framework for analyzing energy storage planning under uncertainty in a multi-stage model predictive control setting. The framework enables a broad and systematic exploration through parametrized generation of synthetic datasets in the context of energy price arbitrage. It facilitates the study of the joint effects of battery characteristics, signal structure, forecast uncertainty, and planning horizon on revenue performance in energy storage optimization, which are rarely considered together. The analysis is driven by two objectives. First, it characterizes how these interacting factors influence operational revenue and its sensitivity to planning horizon selection, including economic losses caused by deviations from optimal horizons. This provides guidance on expected horizon ranges and their impact on revenue and computational cost. Second, it enables a compact parametrization of the relationships between battery properties, data characteristics, forecast uncertainty, and horizon-dependent performance, providing a basis for future modelling of optimal planning horizon length. Results show that the framework captures consistent structural dependencies across configurations and provides meaningful guidance for horizon selection under uncertainty. In particular, increasing forecast uncertainty systematically reduces the optimal planning horizon across battery types, reflecting the diminishing value of long-term information under increasingly unreliable forecasts. Comparison with real market data shows that the parametrization reproduces the main qualitative trends of optimal horizon behavior, suggesting its potential as a lightweight surrogate for more complex simulation-based analysis.

储能优化规划周期不确定性建模

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