arXiv:2604.15719cs.AI2026-04被引 1

通过反复审视未决问题,挖掘预测过程中的早期信号以提升未来判断能力。

Harnessing Pre-Resolution Signals for Future Prediction Agents

论文配图:Harnessing Pre-Resolution Signals for Future Prediction Agents
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 构建可编辑的外部记忆模块,持续积累和更新对同一问题的判断依据。
  • 在FutureX与FutureWorld上性能超越基线,提升源于预解决信号驱动的迭代优化。
  • 适合需要长期跟踪复杂事件、持续改进预测的决策场景。

许多高风险决策依赖于结果尚未揭晓时的预测。在此类未来预测任务中,核心挑战是公开证据随时间演进,而主要监督信号仅在事件结束后才出现:最终结果仅粗略评估正确性,难以指导过程中应关注什么、验证什么或保留何种不确定性。我们观察到,对同一未决问题的反复回顾会产生随时间变化的证据与预测对比,揭示早期判断的遗漏之处,形成一种称为“预解决信号”的诊断信息。我们据此提出Milkyway——一个具备持久预测记忆模块的预测代理,该模块存储可复用的程序化指导。随着同一问题被多次重新审视,Milkyway从演化中的证据与重复预测中提取预解决信号,更新记忆模块,并在事件解决前改善后续预测。事件结束后,实际结果作为后验检查验证中间更新。在FutureX和FutureWorld基准上,Milkyway表现优异;机制分析表明,性能提升源自预解决信号驱动的记忆进化,而非单纯重复预测。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Many high-stakes decisions depend on forecasts made before outcomes are known. In this future prediction setting, the central challenge is that public evidence evolves over time, while the main supervision signal arrives only after resolution: the realized outcome mainly assesses final correctness, offering only coarse guidance on what to track, what to verify, and which judgments to leave uncertain along the way. Our key observation is that revisiting the same unresolved question over time creates informative temporal contrasts across evolving evidence and repeated forecasts, exposing what earlier attempts missed before resolution and yielding a diagnostic signal we call the pre-resolution signal. We instantiate this idea in Milkyway, a future prediction agent with a persistent future prediction harness, an editable external state that stores reusable procedural guidance across revisits to the same unresolved question. As the same unresolved question is revisited, Milkyway extracts pre-resolution signals from evolving evidence and repeated forecasts, uses them to update the harness, and improves later forecasts on that question before resolution. After resolution, the realized outcome serves as a post-resolution check of provisional updates. On the FutureX and FutureWorld benchmarks, Milkyway achieves strong performance against competitive baselines, and a mechanism study suggests that the gains stem from harness evolution driven by pre-resolution signals rather than repeated prediction alone.

未来预测持续学习记忆模块决策优化

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