arXiv:2604.15788cs.IR2026-04ACL被引 1

让大模型生成多样且合理的未来事件假设,突破只预测最可能结果的局限。

Scattered Hypothesis Generation for Open-Ended Event Forecasting

论文配图:Scattered Hypothesis Generation for Open-Ended Event Forecasting
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用强化学习框架联合优化假设的覆盖广度与多样性。
  • 在两个真实数据集上显著优于基线方法,提升覆盖性与合理性。
  • 适合需要全面风险预判的场景,如金融、应急管理。

尽管开放领域事件预测对风险管理至关重要,现有基于大模型的方法主要聚焦于最可能的结果,忽视了现实事件的固有不确定性。为弥合这一差距,我们提出从精准预测转向散射预测,引入假设生成作为代理任务。该范式旨在生成涵盖多种合理未来事件的包容且多样的假设集合。为此,我们提出SCATTER,一种联合优化假设包容性与多样性的强化学习框架。具体地,设计了一种新型混合奖励:1)有效性奖励衡量假设与已知事件的语义一致性;2)组内多样性奖励鼓励采样响应间的差异;3)组间多样性奖励促进不同模式间的探索。通过将有效性门控分数融入目标函数,约束过度发散的假设仅在上下文合理的未来范围内探索,避免模式崩溃。在两个真实世界基准数据集OpenForecast和OpenEP上的实验表明,SCATTER显著优于强基线。代码已公开于https://github.com/Sambac1/SCATTER。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Despite the importance of open-ended event forecasting for risk management, current LLM-based methods predominantly target only the most probable outcomes, neglecting the intrinsic uncertainty of real-world events. To bridge this gap, we advance open-ended event forecasting from pinpoint forecasting to scatter forecasting by introducing the proxy task of hypothesis generation. This paradigm aims to generate an inclusive and diverse set of hypotheses that broadly cover the space of plausible future events. To this end, we propose SCATTER, a reinforcement learning framework that jointly optimizes inclusiveness and diversity of the hypothesis. Specifically, we design a novel hybrid reward that consists of three components: 1) a validity reward that measures semantic alignment with observed events, 2) an intra-group diversity reward to encourage variation within sampled responses, and 3) an inter-group diversity reward to promote exploration across distinct modes. By integrating the validity-gated score into the overall objective, we confine the exploration of wildly diversified outcomes to contextually plausible futures, preventing the mode collapse issue. Experiments on two real-world benchmark datasets, i.e., OpenForecast and OpenEP, demonstrate that SCATTER significantly outperforms strong baselines. Our code is available at https://github.com/Sambac1/SCATTER.

事件预测大模型多样性

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