arXiv:2604.16443eess.SYcs.LG2026-04被引 3

提出多源迁移学习模型,显著提升建筑热动态建模精度。

Thermal-GEMs: Generalized Models for Building Thermal Dynamics

  • 采用多源迁移学习,利用16-32栋建筑数据预训练
  • 相比单源迁移学习,预测误差降低最高63%
  • 为不同数据规模提供选型指导,适配实际部署

基于数据驱动的建筑热动态模型可实现节能运行,但需长期实测数据。迁移学习(TL)通过预训练模型缓解此问题。多源迁移学习有望超越单源方法,但其架构探索与真实数据验证尚不充分。时间序列基础模型(TSFM)成为高性能通用模型候选。本文首次全面评估多源TL与TSFM在建筑热动态建模中的表现,涵盖四种先进多源架构的消融实验及合成与真实数据上的评估。结果表明:多源TL在真实场景中效果显著,预测误差较单源迁移学习最高降低63%。同时发现,当预训练使用16-32栋建筑、持续1年以上数据时,多源TL模型在平均绝对误差上能稳定优于TSFM。该研究为根据可用源建筑数量选择建模策略提供了实用依据。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Data-driven models for building thermal dynamics are a scalable approach for enabling energy-efficient operation through fault detection & diagnosis or advanced control. To obtain accurate models, measurement data from a target building spanning months to years are required. Transfer Learning (TL) mitigates this challenge by employing pretrained models based on single or multiple source buildings. General multi-source TL models promise to outperform single-source TL, but alternative multi-source modeling architectures remain to be explored, and evaluation on real-world data is missing. Moreover, time series foundation models (TSFM) have emerged as candidates for the best-performing general models. Hence, we conduct a first, comprehensive assessment of general modeling approaches for building thermal dynamics, including multi-source TL and TSFMs. Our assessment includes ablations using four state-of-the-art multi-source TL architectures and evaluations on synthetic as well as real-world data. We demonstrate that multi-source TL models are highly effective in accurately modeling buildings in real-world applications, yielding up to 63% lower forecasting errors compared to single-source TL. Moreover, our results suggest a trade-off between multi-source TL models exclusively pretrained with building data and TSFMs pretrained with a multitude of different time series, revealing that data from 16-32 source buildings must be available over 1 year for pretraining multi-source TL models to consistently outperform TSFMs as evaluated using the mean absolute error. These findings provide practical guidance for selecting modeling strategies based on the number of source buildings available for pretraining multi-source TL models.

建筑热模型迁移学习多源建模节能控制

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