用连续轨迹建模预测电池寿命拐点,跨数据集更稳定。
Continuous ageing trajectory representations for knee-aware lifetime prediction of lithium-ion batteries across heterogeneous dataset

- 通过连续轨迹学习,统一处理不同数据集的电池退化特征。
- 发现拐点与寿命终点相关性高达0.75-0.84,早期5-20周期即有预测能力。
- 适合做电池寿命预测、需跨数据迁移的研究者使用。
锂离子电池老化评估受单体差异、循环协议异质性和数据驱动模型跨数据集迁移性差的挑战。尤其在退化拐点(如膝点)的鲁棒识别及早期剩余使用寿命(RUL)预测方面仍存在难题。本研究提出一种基于电压-容量和容量-循环连续轨迹表示的统一分析框架,利用多个公开数据集(NASA、CALCE、ISU-ILCC)进行训练。该连续建模方法能一致提取曲率、平台长度及膝点相关度量,降低对数据离散化方式的敏感性。在超过250个电池上,观察到膝点起始与寿命终点间具有统计显著的相关性(皮尔逊相关系数0.75–0.84)。早期分析表明,基于部分轨迹估计的膝点特征仍具预测价值;随着观测循环数增加,早期模型的RUL预测逐渐稳定,且在前5–20个循环内即可展现有效预测性能,跨数据集域偏移下依然稳健。该框架整合连续建模、特征提取与不确定性感知预测,提供可解释、数据集一致性强的方法,在异构数据集上表现出强鲁棒性。相比传统离散或基于特征的方法,新表示减少对采样分辨率的依赖,提升跨数据集一致性。研究仅限于实验室尺度数据及容量定义的寿命终点。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate assessment of lithium-ion battery ageing is challenged by cell-to-cell variability, heterogeneous cycling protocols, and limited transferability of data-driven models across datasets. In particular, robust identification of degradation transitions, such as the knee point, and reliable early-life prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) remain open problems. This study proposes a unified framework for battery ageing analysis based on continuous representations of voltage-capacity and capacity-cycle trajectories learned from heterogeneous public datasets (NASA, CALCE, ISU-ILCC). The continuous formulation enables consistent extraction of degradation descriptors, including curvature, plateau length and knee-related metrics, while reducing sensitivity to dataset-specific discretisation. Across more than 250 cells, statistically significant correlations between knee onset and end-of-life (Pearson 0.75-0.84) are observed. Additional early-life analysis confirms that knee-related features retain predictive value when estimated from partial trajectories. Early-life models provide increasingly stable RUL predictions as the number of observed cycles increases, with meaningful predictive performance emerging within the first 5-20 cycles and remain robust under cross-dataset domain shift. The framework integrates continuous modelling, feature extraction and uncertainty-aware prediction, providing an interpretable and dataset-consistent approach demonstrating robustness across heterogeneous dataset types. Compared with conventional discrete or feature-based methods, the proposed representation reduces sensitivity to sampling resolution and improves cross-dataset consistency. The study is limited to laboratory-scale datasets and capacity-based end-of-life definitions.
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