用大模型提取病历文本中的隐藏变量,提升重症患者治疗效果因果推断准确率。
LLM-Extracted Covariates for Clinical Causal Inference: Rethinking Integration Strategies
- 将大模型从病历文本中提取的变量直接加入倾向得分模型,效果最佳。
- 相比纯结构化数据,该方法使估计偏差从0.0143降至0.0003。
- 适合关注临床决策因果分析的研究者和医疗AI开发者。
从电子健康记录(EHR)中进行因果推断受限于未测量混杂因素:如衰弱、治疗目标、精神状态等关键临床状态常记录在自由文本中,却缺失于结构化数据。大语言模型可提取这些潜在混杂因子为可解释的结构化协变量,但如何有效整合仍缺乏系统研究。基于包含21,859名脓毒症患者的MIMIC-IV数据库,我们比较了七种协变量整合策略,评估早期使用血管加压素对28天死亡率的影响。核心发现是:并非所有整合方式都有效——直接在倾向得分模型中加入LLM协变量表现最优;而基于文本衍生分类距离的双重卡尺匹配会缩小供体池,导致估计性能下降。半合成实验显示,与仅使用表格数据相比,LLM增强的倾向得分将估计偏差从0.0143降至0.0003,且在大量模拟提取误差下仍保持优势。真实数据中,引入LLM提取变量后,治疗效应估计值从0.055降至0.027,方向与CLOVERS随机试验一致;双重稳健估计器得出0.031,验证了结果稳健性。本研究为危重症临床因果推断中文本协变量的应用提供实证指导。代码已开源。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Causal inference from electronic health records (EHR) is fundamentally limited by unmeasured confounding: critical clinical states such as frailty, goals of care, and mental status are documented in free-text notes but absent from structured data. Large language models can extract these latent confounders as interpretable, structured covariates, yet how to effectively integrate them into causal estimation pipelines has not been systematically studied. Using the MIMIC-IV database with 21,859 sepsis patients, we compare seven covariate-integration strategies for estimating the effect of early vasopressor initiation on 28-day mortality, spanning tabular-only baselines, traditional NLP representations, and three LLM-augmented approaches. A central finding is that not all integration strategies are equally effective: directly augmenting the propensity score model with LLM covariates achieves the best performance, while dual-caliper matching on text-derived categorical distances restricts the donor pool and degrades estimation. In semi-synthetic experiments with known ground-truth effects, LLM-augmented propensity scores reduce estimation bias from 0.0143 to 0.0003 relative to tabular-only methods, and this advantage persists under substantial simulated extraction error. On real data, incorporating LLM-extracted covariates reduces the estimated treatment effect from 0.055 to 0.027, directionally consistent with the CLOVERS randomized trial, and a doubly robust estimator yielding 0.031 confirms the robustness of this finding. Our results offer practical guidance on when and how text-derived covariates improve causal estimation in critical care. Our code is available at https://github.com/fpxlei/LLM-Covariates-Causal.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。