提出三种新方法,让神经网络预测湍流时能准确评估不确定性。
Uncertainty Quantification in PINNs for Turbulent Flows: Bayesian Inference and Repulsive Ensembles

- 用贝叶斯推断和排斥集成提升模型对不确定性的感知能力。
- 在雷诺数3900和10000的湍流模拟中,贝叶斯方法最稳定。
- 适合需要可信预测误差的流体建模与工程仿真场景。
物理信息神经网络(PINNs)在求解由偏微分方程(PDEs)控制的反问题方面展现出巨大潜力,包括从稀疏数据重建湍流场。然而,现有大多数PINN方法为确定性模型,无法提供可靠的表征不确定性(即认知不确定性),这对数据驱动的雷诺平均纳维-斯托克斯(RANS)建模等病态问题至关重要。本文系统开发并评估了若干概率化扩展的PINNs框架,用于湍流建模中的不确定性量化。所提方法结合:(i) 基于哈密顿蒙特卡洛采样的贝叶斯PINNs与温控多组分似然函数;(ii) 蒙特卡洛丢弃法;(iii) 在函数空间中强制多样性的排斥深度集成。特别强调了集成多样性与似然温控在改善约束于PDE的反问题不确定性校准中的作用。方法在一系列测试案例上进行评估,包括范德波尔振子以及雷诺数分别为3,900(直接数值模拟数据)和10,000(实验粒子图像测速数据)的圆柱绕流。结果表明,贝叶斯PINNs在所有推断量上均提供最一致的不确定性估计,而函数空间排斥集成则以较低计算成本实现对主要流动变量的高精度近似。这些发现为物理信息学习中准确性、计算成本与不确定性校准之间的权衡提供了定量洞察,并为数据驱动湍流建模中的不确定性量化提供了实用指导。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) have emerged as a promising framework for solving inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs), including the reconstruction of turbulent flow fields from sparse data. However, most existing PINN formulations are deterministic and do not provide reliable quantification of epistemic uncertainty, which is critical for ill-posed problems such as data-driven Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) modeling. In this work, we develop and systematically evaluate a set of probabilistic extensions of PINNs for uncertainty quantification in turbulence modeling. The proposed framework combines (i) Bayesian PINNs with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling and a tempered multi-component likelihood, (ii) Monte Carlo dropout, and (iii) repulsive deep ensembles that enforce diversity in function space. Particular emphasis is placed on the role of ensemble diversity and likelihood tempering in improving uncertainty calibration for PDE-constrained inverse problems. The methods are assessed on a hierarchy of test cases, including the Van der Pol oscillator and turbulent flow past a circular cylinder at Reynolds numbers Re=3,900 (direct numerical simulation data) and Re = 10,000 (experimental particle image velocimetry data). The results demonstrate that Bayesian PINNs provide the most consistent uncertainty estimates across all inferred quantities, while function-space repulsive ensembles offer a computationally efficient approximation with competitive accuracy for primary flow variables. These findings provide quantitative insight into the trade-offs between accuracy, computational cost, and uncertainty calibration in physics-informed learning, and offer practical guidance for uncertainty quantification in data-driven turbulence modeling.
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