arXiv:2604.17350eess.SPcs.LG2026-04

用稀疏投影分解时间序列,高效又可解释。

SPaRSe-TIME: Saliency-Projected Low-Rank Temporal Modeling for Efficient and Interpretable Time Series Prediction

论文配图:SPaRSe-TIME: Saliency-Projected Low-Rank Temporal Modeling for Efficient and Interpretable Time Series Prediction
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 将时间序列拆分为显著性、记忆和趋势三部分,选择性建模关键信息。
  • 在多个真实数据集上达到媲美RNN与注意力模型的精度,计算量大幅降低。
  • 适合有清晰周期或趋势结构的时间序列,且能直观分析各成分贡献。

时间序列预测传统上依赖循环神经网络和注意力机制等序列模型,这些方法对所有时间步一视同仁,计算开销大。然而真实时间信号通常具有异构结构:重要模式稀疏分布,夹杂冗余观测。本文提出SPaRSe-TIME,一种结构化且高效的框架,将时间序列分解为三个互补成分:显著性(saliency)、记忆(memory)和趋势(trend)。该方法将时序建模重构为投影到信息子空间的过程,其中显著性作为数据相关的稀疏化算子,记忆捕捉主导的低秩时序模式,趋势编码低频动态。三者通过轻量级自适应映射融合,实现简化、选择性和可解释的时序推理。在多种真实世界数据集上的实验表明,SPaRSe-TIME在预测性能上媲美递归与注意力模型,同时显著降低计算复杂度。该模型在具有明确时序结构的数据中尤为有效,并可通过分量贡献提供显式可解释性。分析也揭示了基于分解建模在高度随机和复杂多变量场景下的局限性。总体而言,SPaRSe-TIME为单体序列模型提供了一种兼顾效率、可解释性与性能的原理性替代方案,是可扩展的时间序列学习框架。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Time series forecasting is traditionally dominated by sequence-based architectures such as recurrent neural networks and attention mechanisms, which process all time steps uniformly and often incur substantial computational cost. However, real-world temporal signals typically exhibit heterogeneous structure, where informative patterns are sparsely distributed and interspersed with redundant observations. This work introduces \textbf{SPaRSe-TIME}, a structured and computationally efficient framework that models time series through a decomposition into three complementary components: saliency, memory, and trend. The proposed approach reformulates temporal modeling as a projection onto informative subspaces, where saliency acts as a data-dependent sparsification operator, memory captures dominant low-rank temporal patterns, and trend encodes low-frequency dynamics. These components are integrated through a lightweight, adaptive mapping that enables simplified, selective, and interpretable temporal reasoning. Extensive experiments on diverse real-world datasets demonstrate that SPaRSe-TIME achieves competitive predictive performance compared to recurrent and attention-based architectures, while significantly reducing computational complexity. The model is particularly effective in structured time series with clear temporal components and provides explicit interpretability through component-wise contributions. Furthermore, analysis reveals both the strengths and limitations of decomposition-based modeling, highlighting challenges in highly stochastic and complex multivariate settings. Overall, SPaRSe-TIME offers a principled alternative to monolithic sequence models, bridging efficiency, interpretability, and performance, and providing a scalable framework for time series learning.

时间序列可解释性低秩建模稀疏投影

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