用网络鲁棒性评估项目抗关键人员流失能力，更准更可靠。
Project resilience as network robustness
- 将项目成员关系建模为网络，通过节点删减模拟人员流失。
- 相比传统方法，该模型在多场景下给出更稳定的风险评估结果。
- 适合关注项目管理风险、团队结构优化的研究者与管理者。
工程项目是团队成员协作的成果。然而，项目内部工作分配不均：部分成员为专精型，仅承担少量任务；另一些则为通才型，负责多项任务，常是项目整合的关键。这种分工引发核心问题：项目对关键人员的依赖程度如何？现实中，关键人员流失可能造成严重经济损失和工期延误。现有评估方法存在不足：部分方法仅提供理想情况估计，过于乐观；另一些忽略项目碎片化特征，导致估算偏差，在多数场景下得出不切实际的结论。本文提出一种新方法，从网络鲁棒性视角评估项目脆弱性。对比多种已有方法，结果表明该方法能提供更准确、更一致的项目抗人员流失能力评估。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Engineering projects are the result of the combined effort of their members. Yet, it has been documented that labor division withing projects is unevenly distributed: some project members are specialists undertaking only few tasks, whereas other are generalists and are responsible for the success of many tasks. Moreover, the latter are often facilitators of project integration. Such a workload distribution prompts one question: how resilient is a project to key personnel loss? Far from being a theoretical problem, the reliance of a project on a few key people can lead to severe economic losses and delays. We argue that current methods to estimate such a risk are unsatisfactory: some methods offer a best-case estimate and are, therefore, too optimistic; other methods fail to capture project fragmentation leading to biased estimates and unrealistic consequences in many settings. In this paper, we develop a novel method to assess project vulnerability by looking at it from the lens of network robustness. We compare our method against existing alternatives and show that it offers better and more consistent estimates of project resilience to personnel loss.
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