arXiv:2604.17419cs.MAcs.LG2026-04被引 1

用智能体推理预测人类移动,兼顾准确与可解释性。

ARMove: Learning to Predict Human Mobility through Agentic Reasoning

论文配图:ARMove: Learning to Predict Human Mobility through Agentic Reasoning
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 构建智能体式推理框架,动态调整特征权重提升预测
  • 在4个全球数据集上6项指标超越现有方法,最高提升10.47%
  • 支持跨区域、跨用户、跨模型规模迁移,适合实际部署

人类移动预测是关键任务,但因群体与地区差异而复杂难测。尽管大语言模型(LLMs)在零样本预测上取得进展,现有方法仍存在黑箱推理、缺乏迭代学习和迁移能力差等问题。本文提出完全可迁移的ARMove框架,通过标准化特征管理、迭代优化与用户定制化:构建四大基础特征池、用户画像分组,并集成自动化知识生成机制。利用智能体决策动态调整特征权重,在保证精度的同时提供可解释路径。此外,大-小模型协同蒸馏将72B级模型策略压缩至7B级,降低成本并提升性能上限。在四个全球数据集上的实验表明,ARMove在12项指标中优于基线6项(提升0.78%至10.47%),跨区域、用户及模型尺度的迁移测试验证其19项鲁棒性。可解释性分析也证实其决策透明。代码已开源。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Human mobility prediction is a critical task but remains challenging due to its complexity and variability across populations and regions. Recently, large language models (LLMs) have made progress in zero-shot prediction, but existing methods suffer from limited interpretability (due to black-box reasoning), lack of iterative learning from new data, and poor transferability. In this paper, we introduce \textbf{ARMove}, a fully transferable framework for predicting human mobility through agentic reasoning. To address these limitations, ARMove employs standardized feature management with iterative optimization and user-specific customization: four major feature pools for foundational knowledge, user profiles for segmentation, and an automated generation mechanism integrating LLM knowledge. Robust generalization is achieved via agentic decision-making that adjusts feature weights to maximize accuracy while providing interpretable decision paths. Finally, large-small model synergy distills strategies from large LLMs (e.g., 72B) to smaller ones (e.g., 7B), reducing costs and enhancing performance ceilings. Extensive experiments on four global datasets show ARMove outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on 6 out of 12 metrics (gains of 0.78\% to 10.47\%), with transferability tests confirming robustness across regions, users, and scales. The other 4 items also achieved suboptimal results. Transferability tests confirm its 19 robustness across regions, user groups, and model scales, while interpretability 20 analysis highlights its transparency in decision-making. Our codes are available at: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/ARMove-F847.

移动预测智能体推理大模型蒸馏可解释性

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