arXiv:2604.17622cs.LG2026-04

将特征分组后分别建模,再用元学习整合,提升信用违约预测准确率。

STRIKE: Additive Feature-Group-Aware Stacking Framework for Credit Default Prediction

论文配图:STRIKE: Additive Feature-Group-Aware Stacking Framework for Credit Default Prediction
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 按语义将特征分组,每组独立训练模型,避免单一模型过拟合。
  • 在三个真实数据集上,AUC-ROC 均优于主流树模型和传统堆叠方法。
  • 适合需要可解释性与稳定性的金融风控场景,尤其适用于高维异构数据。

信用风险违约预测是金融风险管理的核心任务,旨在评估借款人未能履行债务义务的可能性,对信贷决策、投资组合优化和监管合规至关重要。传统机器学习模型如逻辑回归和树集成因其可解释性和良好性能被广泛采用。然而,现代信用数据集具有高维度、异质性和噪声,导致单体模型易过拟合,且在分布偏移下鲁棒性下降。本文提出 STRIKE(基于目标化知识提取器的堆叠框架),一种面向结构化表格信用数据的特征组感知堆叠框架。不同于在全数据上训练单一模型,STRIKE 将特征空间划分为语义一致的组别,并在各组内独立训练学习器。该分解源于风险建模的可加视角:不同特征来源提供互补证据,可通过结构化聚合融合。最终通过元学习器整合各组预测结果,在保持稳健性与模块化的同时实现信号聚合。我们在涵盖企业破产与消费信贷的三个真实世界数据集上评估 STRIKE。所有场景下,其 AUC-ROC 均持续优于强基线树模型和常规堆叠方法。消融实验表明,性能提升源于有意义的特征分解,而非模型复杂度增加。研究证明,STRIKE 是一种稳定、可扩展且可解释的信用违约预测框架。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Credit risk default prediction remains a cornerstone of risk management in the financial industry. The task involves estimating the likelihood that a borrower will fail to meet debt obligations, an objective critical for lending decisions, portfolio optimization, and regulatory compliance. Traditional machine learning models such as logistic regression and tree-based ensembles are widely adopted for their interpretability and strong empirical performance. However, modern credit datasets are high-dimensional, heterogeneous, and noisy, increasing overfitting risk in monolithic models and reducing robustness under distributional shift. We introduce STRIKE (Stacking via Targeted Representations of Isolated Knowledge Extractors), a feature-group-aware stacking framework for structured tabular credit risk data. Rather than training a single monolithic model on the complete dataset, STRIKE partitions the feature space into semantically coherent groups and trains independent learners within each group. This decomposition is motivated by an additive perspective on risk modeling, where distinct feature sources contribute complementary evidence that can be combined through a structured aggregation. The resulting group-specific predictions are integrated through a meta-learner that aggregates signals while maintaining robustness and modularity. We evaluate STRIKE on three real-world datasets spanning corporate bankruptcy and consumer lending scenarios. Across all settings, STRIKE consistently outperforms strong tree-based baselines and conventional stacking approaches in terms of AUC-ROC. Ablation studies confirm that performance gains stem from meaningful feature decomposition rather than increased model complexity. Our findings demonstrate that STRIKE is a stable, scalable, and interpretable framework for credit risk default prediction tasks.

信用风险特征分组堆叠模型可解释性

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。