用单一模型同时预测点值和区间,自动保证覆盖率且区间更紧致。
Barrier-enforced multi-objective optimization for direct point and sharp interval forecasting

- 将点预测与区间预测视为多目标优化问题,用多梯度下降自动调权。
- 在太阳辐照度数据上,覆盖率达目标值且区间宽度最窄,优于现有方法。
- 无需手动调参,可适配任意深度学习结构,适合实际部署场景。
本文提出一种基于单神经网络的多步概率预测框架,可同时生成点预测和区间预测。通过模型结构设计,严格满足目标覆盖率(PICP),同时最大化区间尖锐性,确保预测区间不交叉。不同于依赖人工权重调优的标量化损失函数,本文将点预测与区间预测建模为多目标优化问题,采用多梯度下降自适应选择最优权重。关键创新包括:基于扩展对数障碍函数的新型区间损失函数,配备自适应超参数以保证覆盖率;融合共享时序主干与时段特异性子模型的混合架构;以及配套训练策略。所提损失函数具备尺度无关性,通用性强;结合训练算法后,彻底消除多目标平衡中的试错式超参数调优。在日内太阳辐照度预测任务中验证,该方法持续优于现有文献中的损失函数,在达到目标覆盖率的同时实现最窄的预测区间宽度。相较于LSTM编码器-解码器、Transformer架构(包括引入Chronos基础模型的变体),本方法仍具竞争力,且可无缝适配任何深度学习结构。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This paper proposes a multi-step probabilistic forecasting framework using a single neural-network based model to generate simultaneous point and interval forecasts. Our approach ensures non-crossing prediction intervals (PIs) through a model structure design that strictly satisfy a target coverage probability (PICP) while maximizing sharpness. Unlike existing methods that rely on manual weight tuning for scalarized loss functions, we treat point and PI forecasting as a multi-objective optimization problem, utilizing multi-gradient descent to adaptively select optimal weights. Key innovations include a new PI loss function based on an extended log-barrier with an adaptive hyperparameter to guarantee the coverage, a hybrid architecture featuring a shared temporal model with horizon-specific submodels, and a training strategy. The proposed loss is scale-independent and universally applicable; combined with our training algorithm, the framework eliminates trial-and-error hyperparameter tuning for balancing multiple objectives. Validated by an intra-day solar irradiance forecasting application, results demonstrate that our proposed loss consistently outperforms those in current literature by achieving target coverage with the narrowest PI widths. Furthermore, when compared against LSTM encoder-decoder and Transformer architectures--including those augmented with Chronos foundation models--our method remains highly competitive and can be seamlessly adapted to any deep learning structure.
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