分析巴西疫苗争议的舆论生态,揭示不同媒体如何影响公众立场
Who Shapes Brazil's Vaccine Debate? Semi-Supervised Modeling of Stance and Polarization in YouTube's Media Ecosystem

- 用半监督方法分析近140万条视频评论,追踪长期舆论演变
- 疫情高峰期极化加剧,但后疫情时代分化为多类疫苗与互动模式
- 科学传播者和数字原生媒体成主要舆论阵地,暴露健康传播漏洞
疫苗接种是全球公共卫生的核心,但新冠疫情暴露了在线虚假信息、政治极化和机构信任下降对免疫计划的冲击。以往计算研究多聚焦英文数据、特定疫苗或短期窗口,难以理解巴西等非英语高影响力语境下的长期动态——该国拥有全球最全面的免疫系统之一。本文开展迄今最大规模的巴西疫苗话题纵向研究,利用结合自标注与自训练的半监督立场检测框架,分类近140万条评论。通过融合立场、时间模式、互动指标与频道类型(传统媒体、科学传播者、数字原生平台),描绘支持与反对疫苗叙事在混合媒体生态中的演化与传播路径。结果表明,半监督学习显著提升分类鲁棒性,实现对巴西全免疫计划公众态度的细粒度追踪;极化在流行病危机期间激增,尤其在新冠疫情期间,但后疫情时期呈现疫苗与互动模式的碎片化特征。值得注意的是,科学传播与数字原生渠道成为支持与反对意见的主要聚集地,揭示当代健康传播的结构性脆弱。本研究推动大规模立场建模的计算方法,同时为公共卫生机构、平台治理及在线信息生态提供可操作证据。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Vaccination remains a cornerstone of global public health, yet the COVID-19 pandemic exposed how online misinformation, political polarization, and declining institutional trust can undermine immunization efforts. Most of the prior computational studies that analyzed vaccine discourse on social platforms focus on English-language data, specific vaccines, or short time windows, impairing our understanding of long-term dynamics in high-impact, non-English contexts like Brazil, home to one of the world's most comprehensive immunization systems. We here present the largest longitudinal study of Brazil's vaccine discourse on YouTube, leveraging a semi-supervised stance detection framework that combines self-labeling and self-training to classify nearly 1.4 million comments. By integrating stance with temporal patterns, engagement metrics, and channel taxonomy (legacy media, science communicators, digital-native outlets), we map how pro- and anti-vaccine narratives evolve and circulate within a hybrid media ecosystem. Our results show that semi-supervised learning substantially improves stance classification robustness, enabling fine-grained tracking of public attitudes across Brazil's full immunization schedule. Polarization spikes during epidemiological crises, especially COVID-19, but becomes fragmented across vaccines and interaction patterns in the post-pandemic period. Notably, science communication and digital-native channels emerge as the primary loci of both supportive and oppositional engagement, revealing structural vulnerabilities in contemporary health communication. Thus, our work advances computational methods for large-scale stance modeling while offering actionable evidence for public health agencies, platform governance, and online information ecosystems.
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