arXiv:2604.18644cs.LGcs.AI2026-04

用图模型预测犯罪并约束巡逻分配,缓解警力部署中的种族不公。

FASE : A Fairness-Aware Spatiotemporal Event Graph Framework for Predictive Policing

  • 构建时空事件图,融合图神经网络与点过程模型预测犯罪
  • 在6轮模拟中公平性控制在0.9928~1.0262,覆盖率保持87.6%~93.6%
  • 发现仅靠分配约束无法消除数据反馈偏差,需全链路干预

仅依据预测犯罪风险分配警力的预测警务系统可能因数据偏见的反馈机制加剧种族不平等。本文提出FASE框架,将时空犯罪预测、公平性约束的巡逻分配与闭环部署反馈模拟相结合。以巴尔的摩25个邮政编码区为节点建模,使用2017至2019年共139,982起一级犯罪事件,按小时粒度构建稀疏特征张量。预测模块结合时空图神经网络与多变量霍克斯过程,捕捉空间依赖性和自激发时间动态,输出采用零膨胀负二项分布,适用于过度离散且零值密集的犯罪数据。模型验证损失为0.4800,测试损失为0.4857。巡逻分配被建模为公平性约束的线性优化问题,以最大化风险加权覆盖,同时设定人口影响比偏差不超过0.05。在六轮模拟部署中,公平性维持在0.9928至1.0262之间,覆盖率在0.876至0.936之间。然而,少数族裔区域与非少数族裔区域间检测率差距仍约3.5个百分点。结果表明,仅在分配环节施加公平性约束无法消除重训数据中的反馈偏见,亟需在整个流程中实施公平性干预。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Predictive policing systems that allocate patrol resources based solely on predicted crime risk can unintentionally amplify racial disparities through feedback driven data bias. We present FASE, a Fairness Aware Spatiotemporal Event Graph framework, which integrates spatiotemporal crime prediction with fairness constrained patrol allocation and a closed loop deployment feedback simulator. We model Baltimore as a graph of 25 ZIP Code Tabulation Areas and use 139,982 Part 1 crime incidents from 2017 to 2019 at hourly resolution, producing a sparse feature tensor. The prediction module combines a spatiotemporal graph neural network with a multivariate Hawkes process to capture spatial dependencies and self exciting temporal dynamics. Outputs are modeled using a Zero Inflated Negative Binomial distribution, suitable for overdispersed and zero heavy crime counts. The model achieves a validation loss of 0.4800 and a test loss of 0.4857. Patrol allocation is formulated as a fairness constrained linear optimization problem that maximizes risk weighted coverage while enforcing a Demographic Impact Ratio constraint with deviation bounded by 0.05. Across six simulated deployment cycles, fairness remains within 0.9928 to 1.0262, and coverage ranges from 0.876 to 0.936. However, a persistent detection rate gap of approximately 3.5 percentage points remains between minority and non minority areas. This result shows that allocation level fairness constraints alone do not eliminate feedback induced bias in retraining data, highlighting the need for fairness interventions across the full pipeline.

预测警务公平性时空图

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