arXiv:2604.18753cs.LGcs.AI2026-04

用自回归建模处理医疗数据缺失,提升模型可解释性与鲁棒性。

Handling and Interpreting Missing Modalities in Patient Clinical Trajectories via Autoregressive Sequence Modeling

论文配图:Handling and Interpreting Missing Modalities in Patient Clinical Trajectories via Autoregressive Sequence Modeling
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 将临床诊断视为自回归序列建模,利用因果解码器捕捉患者轨迹
  • 在MIMIC-IV和eICU上优于基线,缺失模态下仍保持性能稳定
  • 通过可解释性分析揭示缺失影响,适合临床AI安全部署场景

医疗多模态机器学习面临训练与部署中模态缺失的挑战。由于临床数据具有时间性且模态稀疏,如何在保留模型可解释性的前提下捕捉预测信号仍是难题。本文将临床诊断重构为自回归序列建模任务,采用大语言模型中的因果解码器建模患者多模态轨迹。提出一种缺失感知对比预训练目标,在存在缺失的数据集中将多模态信息映射至共享潜在空间。实验表明,基于Transformer的自回归建模在MIMIC-IV和eICU微调基准上超越基线。进一步通过可解释性技术发现,不同患者住院期间移除模态会引发行为差异,而本方法能有效缓解此问题。通过抽象化临床诊断为序列建模并解析患者轨迹,构建了可解释的缺失模态处理框架,满足安全、透明的临床AI需求。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

An active challenge in developing multimodal machine learning (ML) models for healthcare is handling missing modalities during training and deployment. As clinical datasets are inherently temporal and sparse in terms of modality presence, capturing the underlying predictive signal via diagnostic multimodal ML models while retaining model explainability remains an ongoing challenge. In this work, we address this by re-framing clinical diagnosis as an autoregressive sequence modeling task, utilizing causal decoders from large language models (LLMs) to model a patient's multimodal trajectory. We first introduce a missingness-aware contrastive pre-training objective that integrates multiple modalities in datasets with missingness in a shared latent space. We then show that autoregressive sequence modeling with transformer-based architectures outperforms baselines on the MIMIC-IV and eICU fine-tuning benchmarks. Finally, we use interpretability techniques to move beyond performance boosts and find that across various patient stays, removing modalities leads to divergent behavior that our contrastive pre-training mitigates. By abstracting clinical diagnosis as sequence modeling and interpreting patient stay trajectories, we develop a framework to profile and handle missing modalities while addressing the canonical desideratum of safe, transparent clinical AI.

多模态学习临床轨迹自回归建模可解释性

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