arXiv:2604.18973stat.APcs.LG2026-04

用深度学习实现无网格实时预测地面细颗粒物浓度

Ground-Level Near Real-Time Modeling for PM2.5 Pollution Prediction

论文配图:Ground-Level Near Real-Time Modeling for PM2.5 Pollution Prediction
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 不依赖固定网格,基于稀疏监测站数据进行无网格插值
  • 融合地形、气象与土地利用数据,实现高时空分辨率预测
  • 轻量架构支持快速更新,适合突发污染事件应急决策

空气污染是全球性的公共健康威胁,可引发呼吸系统疾病、心血管疾病及部分癌症。然而,流行病学研究和公共卫生决策受限于无法实时评估污染暴露影响。为此,构建环境污染物的精准数字孪生模型,有助于实现及时的数据驱动分析,推动现代卫生政策升级。现有模型多依赖非实时更新的模拟输入数据,且常采用预设网格,限制了灵活性。本文提出一种深度学习方法,无需固定网格,即可在稀疏分布的美国环保署监测站之间插值地表PM2.5浓度。通过融合地形、气象和土地利用等易得数据,显著提升预测精度与时空分辨率。模型可在任意空间位置快速查询,无需遍历全网格。训练时随机化空间采样,确保在密集与稀疏监测区均表现稳健。其轻量化设计支持流式数据快速更新,具备良好可扩展性,适用于不同地理尺度,尤其适合在公共卫生危机中快速评估多种情景,辅助决策。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Air pollution is a worldwide public health threat that can cause or exacerbate many illnesses, including respiratory disease, cardiovascular disease, and some cancers. However, epidemiological studies and public health decision-making are stymied by the inability to assess pollution exposure impacts in near real time. To address this, developing accurate digital twins of environmental pollutants will enable timely data-driven analytics - a crucial step in modernizing health policy and decision-making. Although other models predict and analyze fine particulate matter exposure, they often rely on modeled input data sources and data streams that are not regularly updated. Another challenge stems from current models relying on predefined grids. In contrast, our deep-learning approach interpolates surface level PM2.5 concentrations between sparsely distributed US EPA monitoring stations in a grid-free manner. By incorporating additional, readily available datasets - including topographic, meteorological, and land-use data - we improve its ability to predict pollutant concentrations with high spatial and temporal resolution. This enables model querying at any spatial location for rapid predictions without computing over the entire grid. To ensure robustness, we randomize spatial sampling during training to enable our model to perform well in both dense and sparse monitored regions. This model is well suited for near real-time deployment because its lightweight architecture allows for fast updates in response to streaming data. Moreover, model flexibility and scalability allow it to be adapted to various geographical contexts and scales, making it a practical tool for delivering accurate and timely air quality assessments. Its capacity to rapidly evaluate multiple scenarios can be especially valuable for decision-making during public health crises.

PM2.5预测实时建模深度学习环境健康

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