提出一种无需概率的可置信逻辑系统，支持灵活推理。
Plausible Reasoning and First-Order Plausible Logic
- 基于17条逻辑原则构建可置信推理框架
- 定义首阶可置信逻辑（PL）并验证14个必要原则
- 适用于常识推理，适合人工智能推理研究者
不可靠陈述是指通常为真但偶尔为假的陈述。可置信推理从事实或不可靠陈述中得出结论，不依赖数值如概率。本文提出17条可置信逻辑原则，包括14条必要原则和3条理想原则（其中一条未形式化）。定义了一种一阶逻辑——可置信逻辑（Plausible Logic, PL），满足除两条外的所有理想原则，并能正确处理所有示例。据我们所知，这是唯一满足该条件的逻辑系统。PL包含8种推理算法，因同一情境可能产生多个合理结论。本文是著作《可置信推理与可置信逻辑》（PRPL）的浓缩版，各节对应书中章节，所有证明见原书。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Defeasible statements are statements that are likely, or probable, or usually true, but may occasionally be false. Plausible reasoning makes conclusions from statements that are either facts or defeasible statements without using numbers. So there are no probabilities or suchlike involved. Seventeen principles of logics that do plausible reasoning are suggested and several important plausible reasoning examples are considered. There are 14 necessary principles and 3 desirable principles, one of which is not formally stated. A first-order logic, called Plausible Logic (PL), is defined that satisfies all but two of the desirable principles and reasons correctly with all the examples. As far as we are aware, this is the only such logic. PL has 8 reasoning algorithms because, from a given plausible reasoning situation, there are different sensible conclusions. This article is a condensation of my book `Plausible Reasoning and Plausible Logic' (PRPL), which is to be submitted. Each section of this article corresponds to a chapter in PRPL, and vice versa. The proofs of all the results are in PRPL, so they are omitted in this article.
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