用大模型分析议会发言，发现讲理越多民主越健康。
Epistemic orientation in parliamentary discourse is associated with deliberative democracy
- 用大模型评分+语义相似度计算言论的理性程度
- 1500万段发言显示理性讨论与民主质量正相关
- 适合关注政治话语质量与治理效能的研究者
民主协商的核心是追求真理，但政治话语的理性程度参差不齐，从基于证据的推理到基于信念的直觉判断不等。本文提出一种可扩展的测量方法——证据减直觉（EMI）得分，基于大语言模型评分和嵌入式语义相似性。将该方法应用于1946至2025年间七国共1500万段议会发言，分析其时间趋势及与协商民主和治理的关系。结果显示，国内随时间推移，EMI得分与协商民主水平呈正相关，且在同期与滞后分析中均成立；同时，高EMI也与法律透明度和可预测执行等治理维度正相关。这表明政治话语的理性特质对民主质量和治理绩效至关重要。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The pursuit of truth is central to democratic deliberation and governance, yet political discourse reflects varying epistemic orientations, ranging from evidence-based reasoning grounded in verifiable information to intuition-based reasoning rooted in beliefs and subjective interpretation. We introduce a scalable approach to measure epistemic orientation using the Evidence--Minus--Intuition (EMI) score, derived from large language model (LLM) ratings and embedding-based semantic similarity. Applying this approach to 15 million parliamentary speech segments spanning 1946 to 2025 across seven countries, we examine temporal patterns in discourse and its association with deliberative democracy and governance. We find that EMI is positively associated with deliberative democracy within countries over time, with consistent relationships in both contemporaneous and lagged analyses. EMI is also positively associated with the transparency and predictable implementation of laws as a dimension of governance. These findings suggest that the epistemic nature of political discourse is crucial for both the quality of democracy and governance.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品；中文卡片由大模型生成，请以原文为准。