arXiv:2604.20022cs.LGcs.AI2026-04

将临床决策推理与语言生成分离,提升诊疗对话系统的可解释性与可靠性。

MoBayes: A Modular Bayesian Framework for Separating Reasoning from Language in Conversational Clinical Decision Support

论文配图:MoBayes: A Modular Bayesian Framework for Separating Reasoning from Language in Conversational Clinical Decision Support
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用贝叶斯模块替代语言模型做推理,实现后验概率显式追踪。
  • 在真实与生成数据上均超越独立大模型医生,且成本更低。
  • 适合需要可审计、可控决策的医疗AI场景,如慢病管理与误诊防控。

大型语言模型(LLMs)在对话式临床决策支持中应用日益广泛,但其将下一词预测与概率决策混为一谈,存在架构缺陷:缺乏显式后验追踪、可调弃权阈值和可审计推理链。我们提出MoBayes,一种模块化贝叶斯对话框架,将推理与语言分离。语言模型仅作为接口,将患者对话解析为结构化观察;贝叶斯模块基于这些观察进行概率推断,通过期望信息增益选择追问问题,并利用校准的决策阈值决定是否停止或推迟判断。该设计支持显式后验追踪、可调控的决策机制,以及无需重训练语言模型即可更换特定人群统计后端。在真实与大模型生成的知识库上,MoBayes优于独立的前沿大模型医生,包括同模型家族对比中,低成本传感器模型配合MoBayes的表现超过更大规模自主模型,且在对抗性沟通风格与不同诊断场景下优势持续存在。结果表明,可靠的对话式临床决策系统应分离概率推理与语言生成,而非仅依赖模型规模扩展。代码开源于https://anonymous.4open.science/r/MoBayes/

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for conversational clinical decision support, yet they conflate next token prediction with probabilistic decision making. We argue that this conflation reflects an architectural limitation: such systems lack explicit posterior tracking, controllable abstention thresholds, and auditable reasoning chains. We introduce MoBayes, a Modular Bayesian dialogue framework that separates reasoning from language. The LLM acts only as a language interface, parsing patient conversation into structured observations, while a Bayesian module performs probabilistic inference over these observations to update posteriors, select follow-up questions via expected-information-gain and determine when to stop or defer through calibrated decision thresholds. This design enables explicit posterior tracking, controllable selective decision-making, and replaceable population-specific statistical backends without retraining the language model. Across empirical and LLM-generated knowledge bases, MoBayes outperforms standalone frontier LLM doctors, including matched model-family comparisons where inexpensive sensor models paired with MoBayes exceed larger autonomous models at lower cost. The advantage persists under adversarial patient communication styles and across varying diagnostic scenarios. These results suggest that reliable conversational clinical decision support systems should separate probabilistic reasoning from language generation rather than scaling model size alone. Code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/MoBayes/

临床决策贝叶斯推理对话系统可解释AI

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