针对航班偏离数据稀少问题,提出多目标优化生成增强方法。
Generative Augmentation of Imbalanced Flight Records for Flight Diversion Prediction: A Multi-objective Optimisation Framework

- 设计融合真实度、统计相似性等四维度的复合目标函数
- 优化后生成数据使预测准确率显著提升
- 适合航空安全与不平衡数据场景的研究者参考
航班偏离是航空业中罕见但影响重大的事件,其可靠预测对安全与运营效率至关重要。然而历史记录中此类事件稀缺,制约了机器学习模型的训练。本文提出一种面向不平衡航空表格数据的生成增强框架,核心创新在于设计了一个专为飞行数据定制的复合优化目标,整合了真实性、统计相似性、保真度和预测效用四个互补质量维度,形成单一评分用于引导树状帕累托估计(TPE)算法进行自动超参数搜索。该目标还辅以多样性与操作有效性两个描述性评估维度,构建六阶段评估体系。使用该目标优化了三种深度生成模型:表格式变分自编码器(TVAE)、条件表格式生成对抗网络(CTGAN)和混合高斯拷贝分布(CopulaGAN),并以高斯拷贝分布(GC)为统计基线。结果表明,优化后的模型在全部六个评估维度上均显著优于默认设置,且使用生成数据训练的模型在航班偏离预测性能上优于仅使用真实数据的模型。研究证明,领域适配的多目标优化是航空罕见事件生成增强的有效策略,可推广至其他不平衡表格预测任务。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Flight diversions are rare but high-impact events in aviation, making their reliable prediction vital for both safety and operational efficiency. However, their scarcity in historical records impedes the training of machine learning models used to predict them. This study addresses this challenge by proposing a generative augmentation framework for imbalanced aviation tabular records. The principal contribution lies in the design of a composite optimisation objective specifically tailored to flight data, which integrates four complementary quality dimensions into a single score used to guide automated hyperparameter search via the Tree-structured Parzen Estimator (TPE) algorithm: realism, statistical similarity, fidelity, and predictive utility. These dimensions were selected and defined to reflect the operational and statistical requirements specific to aviation records, and were complemented by two descriptive evaluation dimensions, diversity and operational validity, forming a six-stage assessment framework. The composite objective was then used to tune three deep generative models, namely Tabular Variational Autoencoder (TVAE), Conditional Tabular Generative Adversarial Network (CTGAN), and CopulaGAN, with Gaussian Copula (GC) serving as a statistical baseline. Results show that optimised models substantially outperform their default counterparts across all six assessment dimensions, and that augmentation with the resulting synthetic data improves diversion prediction compared to training on real data alone. These findings demonstrate that domain-adapted multi-objective optimisation is an effective strategy for generative augmentation of rare events in aviation, with applicability to other imbalanced tabular prediction tasks.
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