用生成模型合成飞行数据,提升航班延误预测精度。
Synthetic Flight Data Generation Using Generative Models

- 采用TVAE和高斯耦合模型生成仿真飞行数据
- TVAE在大规模数据上生成效率更高,预测准确率接近真实数据
- 适合航空大数据研究与隐私保护场景
航空研究中日益增长的合成数据应用为解决数据稀缺和保密性问题提供了有效途径。本研究探索生成模型生成逼真飞行数据的潜力,并通过四阶段评估框架检验其质量。合成飞行数据可替代敏感的真实记录,补充历史数据中罕见事件,用于训练机器学习模型以预测航班延误、取消、改道及航站周转时间等关键事件。选用表格式变分自编码器(TVAE)与高斯耦合(GC)两种生成模型,从统计相似性、保真度、多样性及预测效用四个方面进行对比。结果表明,尽管GC在统计相似性和保真度上表现更优,但其计算开销限制了在大规模数据上的应用;而TVAE能高效处理大容量数据,实现可扩展的合成数据生成。研究表明,合成数据训练的延迟预测模型性能可媲美真实数据训练模型,为航空运输中的预测建模提供了新路径。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The increasing adoption of synthetic data in aviation research offers a promising solution to data scarcity and confidentiality challenges. This study investigates the potential of generative models to produce realistic synthetic flight data and evaluates their quality through a comprehensive four-stage assessment framework. The need for synthetic flight data arises from their potential to serve as an alternative to confidential real-world records and to augment rare events in historical datasets. These enhanced datasets can then be used to train machine learning models that predict critical events, such as flight delays, cancellations, diversions, and turnaround times. Two generative models, Tabular Variational Autoencoder (TVAE) and Gaussian Copula (GC), are adapted to generate synthetic flight information and compared based on their ability to preserve statistical similarity, fidelity, diversity, and predictive utility. Results indicate that while GC achieves higher statistical similarity and fidelity, its computational cost hinders its applicability to large datasets. In contrast, TVAE efficiently handles large datasets and enables scalable synthetic data generation. The findings demonstrate that synthetic data can support flight delay prediction models with accuracy comparable to those trained on real data. These results pave the way for leveraging synthetic flight data to enhance predictive modeling in air transportation.
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