开发可解释AI天气模型的工具,揭示其内部决策机制。
Mechanistic Interpretability Tool for AI Weather Models

- 引入机制可解释性方法,分析模型潜空间特征。
- 在GraphCast中识别出与气象特征相关的线性组合潜变量。
- 适合关注AI天气预报可信度的研究者和气象科学家。
人工智能(AI)天气模型发展迅速,其预测已与传统数值天气预报(NWP)相媲美。为建立对该新方法的信任,必须理解其预测生成机制。然而,这些AI模型仍属黑箱,难以解读。在机器学习其他领域,机制可解释性已成为分析模型决策基础组件的框架。本文提出一个开源、高度可定制的工具,融合机制可解释性理念,组织模型处理器中的内部潜在表示,并支持初步分析,包括余弦相似性和主成分分析(PCA),帮助用户识别潜在关联气象特征的潜空间方向。将该工具应用于图神经网络GraphCast,我们展示了中纬度锋面系统波和比湿的初步案例研究。结果表明,该工具能识别出与可解释气象特征对应的潜变量线性组合。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Artificial Intelligence (AI) weather models are improving rapidly, and their forecasts are already competitive with long-established traditional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). To build confidence in this new methodology, it is critical that we understand how these predictions are generated. This is a huge challenge as these AI weather models remain largely black boxes. In other areas of Machine Learning (ML), mechanistic interpretability has emerged as a framework for understanding ML predictions by analysing the building blocks responsible for them. Here we present an open-source, highly adaptable tool which incorporates concepts from mechanistic interpretability. The tool organises internal latent representations from the model processor and allows for initial analyses, including cosine similarity and Principal Component Analysis (PCA), enabling the user to identify directions in latent space potentially associated with meteorological features. Applying our tool to the graph neural network GraphCast, we present preliminary case studies for mid-latitude synoptic-scale waves and specific humidity. These demonstrate the tool's ability to identify linear combinations of latent channels that appear to correspond to interpretable features.
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