arXiv:2604.20688cs.LGcs.AI2026-04被引 1

用图神经网络修正风暴潮预测误差,提升沿海防灾精度

StormNet: Improving storm surge predictions with a GNN-based spatio-temporal offset forecasting model

论文配图:StormNet: Improving storm surge predictions with a GNN-based spatio-temporal offset forecasting model
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 结合GCN、GAT与LSTM捕捉站点间时空关联
  • 48小时预测RMSE降低70%以上,72小时仍超50%
  • 训练快适合实时预警,尤其对长时预报有效

风暴潮预测对减轻热带气旋影响至关重要,尤其面对近年快速增强和近海活动增多的趋势。传统高保真数值模型如ADCIRC虽稳健,但常受多种不确定因素影响。本文提出StormNet,一种基于图神经网络(GNN)的时空偏置校正模型,融合图卷积(GCN)、图注意力(GAT)与长短期记忆(LSTM)组件,捕捉水位观测站间的复杂时空依赖。模型基于美国墨西哥湾沿岸历史飓风数据训练,并在飓风Idalia(2023)上评估。结果表明,对于48小时预测,水位预测均方根误差(RMSE)降低超过70%,72小时预测仍超过50%,且优于序列LSTM基线,尤其在长时预测中表现更优。模型训练时间短,适合实时业务预报系统。总体而言,StormNet提供了一种计算高效、物理意义明确的框架,显著提升极端天气下风暴潮预测的准确性和可靠性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Storm surge forecasting remains a critical challenge in mitigating the impacts of tropical cyclones on coastal regions, particularly given recent trends of rapid intensification and increasing nearshore storm activity. Traditional high fidelity numerical models such as ADCIRC, while robust, are often hindered by inevitable uncertainties arising from various sources. To address these challenges, this study introduces StormNet, a spatio-temporal graph neural network (GNN) designed for bias correction of storm surge forecasts. StormNet integrates graph convolutional (GCN) and graph attention (GAT) mechanisms with long short-term memory (LSTM) components to capture complex spatial and temporal dependencies among water-level gauge stations. The model was trained using historical hurricane data from the U.S. Gulf Coast and evaluated on Hurricane Idalia (2023). Results demonstrate that StormNet can effectively reduce the root mean square error (RMSE) in water-level predictions by more than 70\% for 48-hour forecasts and above 50\% for 72-hour forecasts, as well as outperform a sequential LSTM baseline, particularly for longer prediction horizons. The model also exhibits low training time, enhancing its applicability in real-time operational forecasting systems. Overall, StormNet provides a computationally efficient and physically meaningful framework for improving storm surge prediction accuracy and reliability during extreme weather events.

风暴潮预测图神经网络时空建模灾害预警

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