arXiv:2604.20735cs.LGcs.SY2026-04

用AI加速设备故障诊断,82倍提速且精度不降。

Fast Bayesian equipment condition monitoring via simulation based inference: applications to heat exchanger health

论文配图:Fast Bayesian equipment condition monitoring via simulation based inference: applications to heat exchanger health
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用神经网络学习传感器数据到故障参数的直接映射
  • 在多种故障场景下诊断准确率与传统方法相当
  • 适合需要实时诊断的工业系统和数字孪生应用

工业设备的状态监测需在不确定性下从间接传感器数据推断潜在退化参数。传统贝叶斯方法如马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛(MCMC)虽能严格量化不确定性,但计算开销大,难以用于实时控制。为此,本文提出一种基于模拟推断(SBI)的AI驱动框架,利用摊销神经后验估计实现热交换器复杂故障模式的诊断。通过在模拟数据集上训练神经密度估计器,该方法学习从热流体观测到退化参数后验分布的直接、无需似然函数的映射。我们在多种合成结垢和泄漏场景下对比该框架与MCMC基线,包括低概率、稀疏事件故障。结果表明,SBI在诊断准确性和不确定性量化方面表现相当,推理速度比传统采样提升82倍。神经网络的摊销特性实现了近实时推理,确立了SBI在复杂工程系统中概率故障诊断与数字孪生构建中的可扩展实时替代方案。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate condition monitoring of industrial equipment requires inferring latent degradation parameters from indirect sensor measurements under uncertainty. While traditional Bayesian methods like Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) provide rigorous uncertainty quantification, their heavy computational bottlenecks render them impractical for real-time process control. To overcome this limitation, we propose an AI-driven framework utilizing Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) powered by amortized neural posterior estimation to diagnose complex failure modes in heat exchangers. By training neural density estimators on a simulated dataset, our approach learns a direct, likelihood-free mapping from thermal-fluid observations to the full posterior distribution of degradation parameters. We benchmark this framework against an MCMC baseline across various synthetic fouling and leakage scenarios, including challenging low-probability, sparse-event failures. The results show that SBI achieves comparable diagnostic accuracy and reliable uncertainty quantification, while accelerating inference time by a factor of82$\times$ compared to traditional sampling. The amortized nature of the neural network enables near-instantaneous inference, establishing SBI as a highly scalable, real-time alternative for probabilistic fault diagnosis and digital twin realization in complex engineering systems.

故障诊断贝叶斯推断数字孪生AI驱动

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