用大模型模拟生命体征变化,实现可解释的脓毒症早期预警。
Clinically Interpretable Sepsis Early Warning via LLM-Guided Simulation of Temporal Physiological Dynamics

- 通过大模型引导的时序模拟,显式建模生理指标演变轨迹。
- 在MIMIC-IV和eICU上24小时预判准确率AUC达0.861-0.903。
- 输出可解释的生理趋势图,帮助医生早期干预与决策。
脓毒症的及时且可解释的早期预警仍面临重大临床挑战,源于生理恶化过程的复杂时序动态。传统数据驱动模型虽准确但缺乏透明性,限制了医生信任与临床应用。为此,我们提出一种大语言模型(LLM)引导的时序模拟框架,显式建模疾病发生前的生理轨迹,实现可解释预测。该框架包含时空特征提取模块,捕捉多变量生命体征间的动态依赖;医学提示作为前缀模块,将临床推理线索嵌入大模型;基于代理的后处理组件,确保预测结果处于生理合理范围内。通过先模拟关键生命体征演化,再分类脓毒症发作,模型提供与临床判断一致的透明预测机制。在MIMIC-IV和eICU数据库上评估,该方法在24至4小时前的预测任务中取得0.861至0.903的优异AUC分数,优于传统深度学习与规则基方法。更重要的是,其提供的可解释轨迹与风险趋势,有助于重症监护环境中早期干预与个性化决策。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Timely and interpretable early warning of sepsis remains a major clinical challenge due to the complex temporal dynamics of physiological deterioration. Traditional data-driven models often provide accurate yet opaque predictions, limiting physicians' confidence and clinical applicability. To address this limitation, we propose a Large Language Model (LLM)-guided temporal simulation framework that explicitly models physiological trajectories prior to disease onset for clinically interpretable prediction. The framework consists of a spatiotemporal feature extraction module that captures dynamic dependencies among multivariate vital signs, a Medical Prompt-as-Prefix module that embeds clinical reasoning cues into LLMs, and an agent-based post-processing component that constrains predictions within physiologically plausible ranges. By first simulating the evolution of key physiological indicators and then classifying sepsis onset, our model offers transparent prediction mechanisms that align with clinical judgment. Evaluated on the MIMIC-IV and eICU databases, the proposed method achieves superior AUC scores (0.861-0.903) across 24-4-hour pre-onset prediction tasks, outperforming conventional deep learning and rule-based approaches. More importantly, it provides interpretable trajectories and risk trends that can assist clinicians in early intervention and personalized decision-making in intensive care environments.
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