用数据驱动模型模拟污水厂运行,支持长期决策。
Data-Driven Open-Loop Simulation for Digital-Twin Operator Decision Support in Wastewater Treatment

- 分步建模:先推断历史状态,再滚动预测未来响应
- 在缺损率43%数据下,1000步预测误差降低40%以上
- 适合工业界做长期方案筛选,不依赖物理模型
污水处理厂需要具备数字孪生功能的决策支持工具,能模拟在预设控制方案下的系统响应,容忍传感器数据不规则和缺失,并在12-36小时规划期内保持信息有效性。我们提出CCSS-RS,一种受控连续时间状态空间模型,将历史状态推断与未来控制及外部变量滚动分离。该模型结合类型化上下文编码、增益加权的驱动输入处理、半群一致滚动策略,以及学生t分布与零膨胀混合输出,以适应重尾和零值密集的污水数据特征。在公开的Avedøre全尺度基准上,面对906,815个时间步、43%缺失率、1-20分钟不规则采样,模型在H=1000时达到RMSE 0.696、CRPS 0.349,相比神经CDE基线降低40%-46%,较简化内部变体降低31%-35%。四个案例研究显示:氧设定值扰动使氨氮预测变化-2.3至+1.4(滚动周期300-1000);平滑设定方案在多准则筛选中表现最优;仅上下文信息缺失导致监测变量误差增加不超过10%;氨氮、硝酸盐与氧气预测精度持续优于持续性基准。结果表明CCSS-RS可作为工业级污水厂离线场景筛查的实用学习型模拟器,补充机理模型。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) need digital-twin-style decision support tools that can simulate plant response under prescribed control plans, tolerate irregular and missing sensing, and remain informative over 12-36 h planning horizons. Meeting these requirements with full-scale plant data remains an open engineering-AI challenge. We present CCSS-RS, a controlled continuous-time state-space model that separates historical state inference from future control and exogenous rollout. The model combines typed context encoding, gain-weighted forcing of prescribed and forecast drivers, semigroup-consistent rollouts, and Student-t plus hurdle outputs for heavy-tailed and zero-inflated WWTP sensor data. On the public Avedøre full-scale benchmark, with 906,815 timesteps, 43% missingness, and 1-20 min irregular sampling, CCSS-RS achieves RMSE 0.696 and CRPS 0.349 at H=1000 across 10,000 test windows. This reduces RMSE by 40-46% relative to Neural CDE baselines and by 31-35% relative to simplified internal variants. Four case studies using a frozen checkpoint on test data demonstrate operational value: oxygen-setpoint perturbations shift predicted ammonium by -2.3 to +1.4 over horizons 300-1000; a smoothed setpoint plan ranks first in multi-criterion screening; context-only sensor outages raise monitored-variable RMSE by at most 10%; and ammonium, nitrate, and oxygen remain more accurate than persistence throughout the rollout. These results establish CCSS-RS as a practical learned simulator for offline scenario screening in industrial wastewater treatment, complementary to mechanistic models.
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